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Nexus Forums _ Statistics and Formulas Board _ Cracking The Rabbit Races

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Aug 2 2006, 05:46 PM



I have been really bored with nexus as of late and want to do something completely challenging, and the only thing I can think of is being able to uncover the algorythm used (through data analysis) to be able to repeatedly pick winners in the rabbit races. After hours upon hours of research I am certain a randomizer isn't used and instead a semi-complex log is used.

If you want to potentially make loads of nexus money, I ask that you help me with my research in posting your finds. When recording data longer cycles (6+ races) are more helpful.

What you need to list....

Make sure you only gamble/research at the Masan race tracks we need to limit our variables just incase different equations are used at different locations.

Rabbits who raced (include, name, color, and place finished)

Good luck, and thanks. I'll post my current findings shortly, it will take a while to convert them all from an excell document to forum a forum friendly post.




Posted by: Sephyrson Aug 2 2006, 06:17 PM

lol... its not hard to make money off the tracks at all

check this out, get 3 friends

5 rabbits race
you have a 3/5 chance to win
the payout is 4x the original bet
so each time one of you wins, you split the 4x payout 3 ways
you make money
its simple math
yes, Its after work, I'm tired, and not speaking in complete sentances
but trust me, you can easily make 2mil a day, per person, just by doing that while doing hw, writing a term paper, playing xbox, watching tv, whatev...

-seph

Posted by: Lord Kyoto Aug 2 2006, 06:18 PM

Intresting, il post my results.

Posted by: LEET Aug 2 2006, 08:56 PM

actully I did the same thing and studied atleast 200 races i found it......................





RANDOM

Posted by: hiro Aug 2 2006, 10:01 PM

Okay... This might be a little nerdy, but over a vacation two of my friends and I recorded over 4 days of straight rabbit races numbers... No repeats.

Posted by: Leonis Aug 3 2006, 12:30 AM

Uhh why wouldn't it be random? Using a random number generated by the server would be the easiest way for Nexon to have programmed the race tracks wouldn't it? It's obviously not completely random (as complete randomness is like impossible to obtain through programming) but why would you waste your time calculating the flaw? Even if you do figure it out I doubt it would go unnoticed by the archons/KRU. You could just as easily go wooling instead. =P I dunno.. it just doesn't sound like a very honest way of getting money.

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Aug 3 2006, 04:44 PM

QUOTE
Uhh why wouldn't it be random? Using a random number generated by the server would be the easiest way for Nexon to have programmed the race tracks wouldn't it? It's obviously not completely random (as complete randomness is like impossible to obtain through programming)


randomizers are based off of equations, and as you pointed out are not completely random.With a wide enough spread of data which could be 1,000+ samples an equation can easily be obtained.

Leet, Hiro do you have your vast ammount of samples recorded?

I'm fairly adept at math myself however I have been talking to a math professor at my university about the complexities of algorythmic logs used in randmoizers and he is providing me with 3 papers written by his friend that will provide a simple method for me to convert this data into its original equation.

Posted by: hiro Aug 3 2006, 05:33 PM

No

Posted by: LEET Aug 3 2006, 05:38 PM

I formatted my computer

but I should have it on a disk somewhere


I recorded the Number, color, and the name of the rabbit in each race and only the ones who win.

Posted by: Ishman Aug 4 2006, 12:21 AM

The code probably just utilizes the Unix pseudo-random number generator. (I'm almost positive they use Unix-based servers). Such a thing isn't impossible to crack programmatically, but it's difficult. I'd say your odds of cracking it just by watching it is next to impossible if the above is true; the /dev/random driver is reliable enough for anything from randomizing your music playlist to generating 1024-bit RSA key pairs, if that gives you any idea. tongue.gif

But hey, not to discourage you from finding a pattern. ^^

http://eprint.iacr.org/2006/086.pdf

Posted by: PoeticTruth Aug 4 2006, 01:37 PM

Reminds me of the Numb3rs TV show where people figured out the algorhythm of a casino card shuffler so they could find out what card it would deal next.

Crazy.

I myself, hate math, and calculus, and all that fun stuff, so I will not be able to help you.

And I don't gamble that much =p

Posted by: solman Aug 5 2006, 10:21 AM

Wish I could help in this. However if its anything like finding out the randomizer for casting spells with weapons, it should be semi easy to figure out. I mean if you really think about it, anything even concidered random in nexus is easy to crack and figure out.

Posted by: XtremeX Aug 7 2006, 03:04 PM

QUOTE(PoeticTruth @ Aug 4 2006, 11:37 AM) [snapback]6174[/snapback]

Reminds me of the Numb3rs TV show where people figured out the algorhythm of a casino card shuffler so they could find out what card it would deal next.


yeah I saw some guy figure out a lottery one once and he was stupid and immediatly won the lottery and ended up getting caught.

Posted by: DEREKSMART Aug 7 2006, 11:30 PM

You will never get it. It's completely intractable.

There's no telling how many other random things are used by the same seed number that is used to randomize the races, thus you'd have to know exactly how many calls to the algorithm were made between races so you could track the seed (assuming you knew the algo used and the initial seed.)

Furthermore, if you watch the races you can see the rabbits changing speed constantly, which leads to the more probabilistically correct assumption that the winner is not randomly chosen before hand, but instead random numbers are generated for every rabbit every X milliseconds to modulate the speed at which they run.

Posted by: solman Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM

Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.

Posted by: Ishman Aug 8 2006, 12:34 AM

QUOTE(solman @ Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM) [snapback]6664[/snapback]

Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.


I have to argue with that. Everything in the world is probability. You can only "solve random," so to speak, with an infinite amount of time... Remember, in physics, as time goes forward, entropy increases.

In your illustration, you can't ignore that there are subtle variables no matter what you try to keep constant, because you're not in control of the properties of the universe. laugh.gif

In reality, you can get a good idea of what it might hit every time if you know some stuff about probability in mathematics. For instance, playing a good game of blackjack only requires a subtle and insanely quick ability to count cards and calculate the probability based on the cards in your hand. If you have an educated guess of whether to hit, stand, or fold, you're more likely to make money than you are if you cannot account for these variables. But you'll never be right ALL of the time.

I argue that betting on the rabbit race is a matter of calculating probability, not solving an equation; much like stated by Sephyrson.

Posted by: PikuDamaru Aug 8 2006, 04:50 PM

Sounds to me if we can at least get CLOSE, the chances of us making money off of this is still pretty good.

Posted by: Toshimaru Aug 11 2006, 12:17 PM

I got bored, and thought..
Why not just listen to people that've said it, and get 3 friends..

I pulled out a peice of paper

Each friend bids 100k, thats 4/5 chance to win, wich is very likely, 3 lose, 1 wins, the one that one gives them their money back, and 25% of the profit, so they all made 25k, 25k every 10 minutes, for 1 hour, 250k an hour, Do it for maybe, 8 hours straight, 2mill in an 8 hour day, for EACH person.

I'd say at 4/5, just get 3 friends..


<edit>And is it just me, or is it usually 2,3, and 4 that win the races in all the rabbit race tracks?

<2nd edit> I meant get 3 more friends, not just 3 friends, I just woke up >.>

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Aug 11 2006, 12:35 PM

QUOTE
Each friend bids 100k, thats 4/5 chance to win, wich is very likely, 3 lose, 1 wins, the one that one gives them their money back, and 25% of the profit, so they all made 25k, 25k every 10 minutes, for 1 hour, 250k an hour, Do it for maybe, 8 hours straight, 2mill in an 8 hour day, for EACH person.

I'd say at 4/5, just get 3 friends..


Your math is totally off. First of all the maximum bet you can make is 99,999 but lets say it is 100k, if you win you only win 4 times the ammount you bet. Meaning you have 4/5 chance to BREAK EVEN... Rofl... not to mention you get the figure of 25k every 10 minutes and somehow the number of 250k for an hour...

QUOTE
And is it just me, or is it usually 2,3, and 4 that win the races in all the rabbit race tracks?


In my latest logs of around 120 to 130 races (most of them are divided up every 6 to 9 races thats an hour to an hour and a half...)

1. 27, 2. 22, 3. 30, 4. 25, 5. 23

The higher the data sample the closer the final results would be, assuming of course that it's just based off of Rabbit placement.

Posted by: Nagnag Aug 12 2006, 02:20 AM

One time I sat back and watched the races and sought what I thought was a pattern, 2,2,4,4,1,3,5,3,3,5,5,2,4,1 something like that, now it LOOKS like a pattern, possibly - but wasn't. Now - this is why gambling is so addicting and so chaotic at the same time. It is based on random equations. This is true, nothing can be 'completely random" but COMPLETE RANDOMNESS would take an infinite amount of space for numbers. And almost-complete randomness (what a computer can do) is still too much for us to solve.

Now, if each "randomness" in nexus is based off of the same RANDOM equation, then yes, if recorded from the FIRST randomness to the 10 millionth randomness, then you can look for the pattern of randomness that the rabbit races occurs in and look in the numbers you have recorded from something else, and find this. Thus, a pattern. However, you can not if it is completely random (meaning random numbers multiplying random numbers dividing random numbers, removing decimals, whatever)

Now, with all that mumbo jumbo aside, think about this. One time I was almost banished from merchant gambling because I kept ambushing the caster (the merchant) as soon as they'd say "flips coin" basically having MY spell be the last casted on them, and then they cast THEIR spell on me, hmmm... coincidence? I won 25/25 one time. Thus I was once rich, but it's all coincidence. Sit at a roulette table and try to guess the next color, you may be right for a while, but probability and product of elimination doesnt' work for this.


Posted by: PIEMINISTER Aug 12 2006, 02:29 AM

funny you mention roulette, I remember reading of a european composer turned mathemitician exploiting the game roulette by collecting data samples on specific wheels to determine the wheel's defect and increase his chances of winning immensley, him and his family ended up making millions before they were barred from all major casinos worldwide.

There is a "defect" in these races and I will be the to find it, hopefully kru isn't as corrupt as the gaming community.

Posted by: Euphoria Aug 12 2006, 07:32 PM

I think if you do eventually "crack the rabbit races" kru will just change the algorythm and maybe even ban you for the ammount of gold that you could pump into economy in matter of hours. look at all the people who were banned for the bears liver bug. or farther back the people who were banned for the water jewel bug when SOE first came out.

But if you decide to press the matter I wish all of the luck to you

smile.gif

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Aug 12 2006, 07:41 PM


The thing is all of those things were BUGS, cracking an algorythm isn't a bug.

Posted by: Leonis Aug 12 2006, 08:54 PM

QUOTE(PIEMINISTER @ Aug 12 2006, 08:41 PM) [snapback]7582[/snapback]

The thing is all of those things were BUGS, cracking an algorythm isn't a bug.

Why would KRU care? They aren't going to watch and give you a pat on the back and say "Good job! You beat the system!" as the economy exploads from inflation and we are put through another Reckoning. You seem to think that archons will only enforce the laws they put up on the boards. They have shown in the past that they have no problems with making up new laws on the spot to keep players in line (see: alcohol issue).

Posted by: PikuDamaru Aug 15 2006, 04:21 PM

As much as this is a good idea and under normal circumstances, you shouldn't get in trouble for "figuring out anything", this isn't normal circumstances. Nexon NEVER was that simple. People got banned for bugs THEY put in. More then ususal, people got in trouble for a problem Nexon themselves caused. I'll give KRU credit saying he isn't half as bad as Nexon was, but that's not to say he won't ban you.

Good luck anyway.

Posted by: RpgWizard Aug 23 2006, 06:20 AM

QUOTE(solman @ Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM) [snapback]6664[/snapback]

Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.



Did you know there is a .0000000000000001% chance that you will find my wave function (IE, myself) on Jupiter? Quantum Mechanics FTW.

(EVERYTHING is random, maybe I should change this to everything is probability)

Einstein: God does not "play dice" with the universe... WROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG

Heisenberg Uncertainty principle, as you know more about the velocity you know less about the position. You can never know the particles EXACT position since you would then know an EXACT velocity, but that is exactly contrary to the fact that as you know more about the position, you know less about the velocity, and vice versa. Everything is probability, as these are the basic building blocks of the universe.

Edit: Obviously does not apply to BASIC mathematics, where 2x = 4 => x = 2 since x cannot equal anything else...

Posted by: Caspar Aug 25 2006, 07:01 AM

wheres the races located, i wanna go lose money

Posted by: Xyiphis Sep 17 2006, 02:53 PM

Im a noob so im asking a question

say you bring 3 people for the rab races (4 with you)
you each bet 99k
only the wins and gets 40% chance of 1 winning 396k and everyone gets the same amount. 50% chance noone wins and you all waist 99k
10% of something else

so how do you make money there?

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Sep 17 2006, 09:15 PM

Your math is off.

If you went with 3 other people to the Rabbit races, and you each spent the max of 99,999 betting on different four rabbits you'd have a 80% chance of breaking even, and a 20% chance of losing all of your money...



Posted by: Xyiphis Sep 18 2006, 06:31 PM

either way, whats the point?

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Sep 19 2006, 08:57 AM

That particular method there is no point, however there are other "smart" methods that yield great benefits. I personally have made over 6 million in Rabbit Races now.

Posted by: Xyiphis Sep 19 2006, 05:51 PM

like?

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Sep 19 2006, 06:10 PM

this thread will tell you how, maybe take the time to read it.

Posted by: Gokku Sep 20 2006, 04:58 AM

Interesting subject! I love probability. Let's see:

Mathematically, (if no "work arounds" are used), on average it is impossibale to make money out of the current rabbit race, whatever the number of players you bring. Even more, the more players you involve the more money you loose on average:

Let suppose you bring p players and each player bets an amount m on a different rabbit, then the average money you will make per race would be:

(money won) x (probability of winning) - (money lost) x (probability to loose)
= ( (4-p) x m x (p/5) ) - (p x m x (5-p)/5)
= -(p/5) m

In other words, on average you should loose (p/5)xm per race. Which also means that the more players you involve the more you loose!

Evenmore, if you change to a different scheme and make all players bet on the same rabbit you will end up exactly with the same probability (p/5)xm loss.

I haven't looked at all possible ways to make bets. But so far it seems that there is no way to make money one average withthe current rules.

Posted by: Zilwan Oct 6 2006, 10:33 AM

okay okay okay... let me get this straight...

If you have 3 people betting.... say on

1) 2) 3) and 100k each, one should win 3/5? Meaning if you win 3 times... thats 1,200,000 coins? total. However, if one spends 100k on each rabbit, 3 per round... thats 1,500,000 coins every 5 rounds. Don't you lose money?


If we start with 1,000,000 bank roll

Round one we win. We wager 300k, and win 400k. (100k on each rabbit)

1,100,000 coins (Not bad)

Round two we win. We wager 300k more... and win 400k, (betting 100k on each rabbit)

1,200,000 coins... we're on a roll

Round Three we lose, We wager 300k, and lost it all... (100k on each rabbit)

900,000 We won 2/3 and lost money?

Round 4 we win... betting 300k, and we won 400k.. Waahoo

We are back at a mil after winning 3/4....

Round 5 we lose... 300k.... we lost

After 5 rounds we are at 700k.... Where is the profit in this probability?





In total you spend 1,500,000 coins.

but, you win 3 times... so thats 100k X 4 and thats 400k per turn times 3 is 1,200,000 coins? Where is the profit? No one calculated the losses?

Posted by: Nagnag Oct 8 2006, 02:12 PM

Ok, there are 5 rabbits. You can bet up to 99k for each rabbit. So for sake of arguement, we will bet 10k per rabbit in this example.

r1 - 10k
r2 - 10k
r3 - 10k
r4 - n/a
r5 - n/a

Lets say you start out with 100k

As you can see, no one bets on r4 & r5. Now, let's say r1 wins. That's 40k minus your 30k bet, you won 10k so it ends up being 2x your original bet.
Which now you have 110k.

Let's say, though, that you bet the same bet, 10k on r1-3, then r4 wins, then you lost 30k, which leaves you with 80k. But now lets say you made the same bet again, 10k on r1-3 and r5 wins, you're down to 50k.

You can always THINK you beat the odds, but really you're just uping the risk. And when you up the risk you up the potential payout, but also the potential blow-out. In other words, no matter if you bet with 3 chars or 1, your potential is the same because the amount you pay with each evens it out in the end.

For example:
[10][10][10] <-10k on rabbits 1,2, & 3
[10] <-10k on rabbit 1

If you do the 10k on rabbit 1 three times, you've got just as much chance as winning off of the three bets of 3x[10] (30k total). In fact, you'll have mroe fun, spend more time, and MORE RISK by betting MORE MONEY on MORE CHARACTERS on MORE RABBITS. But you would win more IF you bet in more than just 10k each, for instance...

If you bet ..
10k on rabbit 1
50k on rabbit 2
10k on rabbit 3
50k on rabbit 4
10k on rabbit 5

You have spent 130k and if rabbit 2 or 4 hits, you win 200k, a 70k profit.
But if rabbit 1, 3, or 5 hit, you'll make 40k and lose 90k on the bet.

If you do the math, let's say you lost 90k three times, that's 270k, and then the 4th time you win, you win 200k, but you're still 70k down.

There IS a way to make constant profitability out of this, and that way is to will it so. Sit down, imagine yourself winning, bet 99k on TWO rabbits, and you'll win. I promise.

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Oct 8 2006, 03:47 PM

YO,

COULD ALL OF YOU GRADE 10 MATH STUDENTS STHU, AND LEARN TO READ? THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS THREAD WAS NOT A MATTER OF PROBABILITY BUT DATA ANALYSIS.

I HAVE MADE MMMMMMMMMMMIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLIIIIIIIIIIOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSS IN ACTUAL DATA ANALYSIS THUS FAR IN A LITTLE OVER A YEAR. ITS A DIFFICULT PROCESS AND IT IS NOT YET PERFECT THIS IS WHY I WAS SEEKING THE HELP OF ALL OF YOU FORUMERS TO MAKE THIS PROCESS MORE EFFICENT, AND FASTER. IT TAKES ME A WHILE TO RACK UP MONEY, BUT WITH A PERFECT SYSTEM WE COULD THEN CALL THE RABBIT RACES A FREE MONEY DISPENSER.
PEACE

Posted by: Nagnag Oct 9 2006, 06:52 AM

No, you are wrong. Let's say, for sake of argument, that it was a simple data analysis thing. Lets say it took us a month to finally crack this code and find this ultimate pattern. All they have to do is create another random generated pattern and bam, all our work is down the drain.

Do you REALLY think kru doesn't read the forums? Puhleese. It's better to base your winnings off probability than it is data.

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Oct 9 2006, 06:30 PM

I've been working on it for a little over a year now, and through this data I am able to locate specific patterns which yield maximum results, the only problem is my data is incomplete.

Also I've had this idea of data analysis since well into Nexon's era, and let me tell you there is one specific pattern of 6 that is still found in the Rabbit races that I always capitilize on. The only problem is I see it once every couple of weeks at best, there are other smaller recognizable patterns but my goal is to be able to walk into a rabbit race, watch two or three, and instantly know the patten of every single race afterward.

Posted by: Nagnag Oct 10 2006, 02:30 AM

Then let's put it this way, if you already know the "pattern" and there are "few other instances" then go in, follow it UNTIL your pattern comes up, and then bam, figure out the new one. Simple.

Posted by: Ishman Oct 10 2006, 02:52 AM

To me, it seems like this is what you're doing...

For the sake of illustration, I will use n trials of a coin toss. As may be apparent, H means that the coin landed on Heads and T means that the coin landed on Tails.

H, H, T, H, H, T, H, H, H, T, T, H, H ,H ,T, T, H, H, H, H, T, T, T, H, ..., T, T, T

Observing the first twenty-three and the last three results [trials (n-2), (n-1), and (n)] of n trials, one might look at the results and say, "There's obviously a pattern to the outcome of the coin toss!" While it may appear to be so at face value, that's nowhere near correct. In this example, we can say that after 23 tests, there is certainly a distinctive pattern. However, that pattern is only valid for trials 1 to 23. You cannot prove that this pattern will hold for every test afterward. This remains true for one thousand tests, for one million tests, even for 10^(10^(10^10)) tests. Obviously, the more tests you perform, the more reliable your data will be; but, you would need to perform n tests to show that your pattern is, indeed, valid.

Suffice to say that even after a century of data analysis, it is unlikely that you will have found anything even resembling a pattern. At least, mathematically speaking, the odds are stacked against you.

In other words, unless you want to be playing with rabbit races for the rest of your life, I suggest you stop and find a different approach, such as the suggested probability approach. I'm sure as hell not going to waste my time with the method of exhaustion -- I have goals in life, you see... laugh.gif


---
Edited: Illustration was poorly conceived, text was very hard to follow. Adjusted accordingly. Please bear with me, as my eyes are closing themselves and my A.D.D. is kicking in. Maybe I should sleep. I'll check on this tomorrow. smile.gif

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Oct 10 2006, 09:03 AM


QUOTE
Then let's put it this way, if you already know the "pattern" and there are "few other instances" then go in, follow it UNTIL your pattern comes up, and then bam, figure out the new one. Simple.


ROFL.

I don't know "the pattern", I know A pattern. It's like I know the first 6 digits of pi but everything else is oblivious to me...for now...


Ishman: The difference between a coin toss and a rabbit race is that the rabbit race is built on a randomizer which is built on an algorythm, meaning a randomizer is not RANDOM. There are way more variables in tossing a coin then there are of running a randomizer. If you create a device to flip a coin, in an enclosed area, with an undamagable surface you could easily find a pattern in a coin toss, simply because of the reduction of variables.

Posted by: Ishman Oct 10 2006, 04:41 PM

I think you misunderstand how a pseudo-random number generator works, so I'll explain the basic components.

Entropy for the pseudo-random number generator is seeded from the hardware interrupts of the computer. The algorithm, which is not very well documented for the Linux RNG, refreshes the generator's "state" every once in a while and "outputs pseudo-random bits" (Gutterman 1).

These are some basic properties of all pseudo-random number generators:

QUOTE(Gutterman @ 6 March 2006)
Pseudorandomness. The generator's output looks random to an outside observer.

Forward security. An adversary which learns the internal state of the generator at a specific time cannot learn anything about previous outputs of the generator.

Break-in recovery / backward security. An adversary which learns the state of the generator at a specific time does not learn anything about future outputs of the generator, provided that sufficient entropy is used to refresh the generator's state. (Gutterman 1-2)

The appearance of randomness is good enough if an attacker has no information about the state of the generator, which, by the way, cannot be gathered without at least access to the machine's operating system. If such information is gathered, then, ideally, the attacker cannot learn anything about past or future states of the generator due to forward-security and backward-security measures (2).

On KRU's servers, there is more than enough sufficient entropy to create good pseudo-random output. That is why your method of data analysis will not work.

-----
QUOTE
Acknowledgements:

Gutterman, Zvi, et. al. 2006. Analysis of the Linux Random Number Generator.
On-line. Available from Internet, http://eprint.iacr.org/2006/086.pdf,
Accessed 10 October, 2006.




P.S. Because the first, oh, SEVERAL TRILLION digits of π show no pattern, I'm certain that there won't be one found. laugh.gif Just illustrating what a bad example that was.

Posted by: Toshimaru Oct 10 2006, 09:41 PM

ok wait a second


EVERYONE READ THIS...


Say you do crack the rabbit races.

Money will flock into the kingdoms.
Everyone will have TONS of money.
Ok thats fine and dandy.

but with the mass ammount of gold in the game, All the prices will raise for everything.

Because alot of people read these forums.

I havnt been on for a bit but just say For example


A big axe

Say it goes for 200k ( I dunno anymore )

And after the rabbit races

200k will be NOTHING

It will raise to..

5-6 mill?

Whats the point? El Seriously?

Posted by: Ishman Oct 10 2006, 10:34 PM

It would obviously be a stupid idea to "crack" the race and let everyone know how to do it. Any person with a basic grasp on economics knows that.

Personally? I don't really care about the outcome. I just like discussing it. If this thread, in whole or in part, was harmful to the game, I'm certain the moderators would have taken action long ago. <3

I stand by the fact that "cracking" the rabbit races is virtually impossible based on my reasons mentioned above. Using probability to increase your odds of winning is a more practical approach, much like with any other gambling.

Posted by: Nagnag Oct 13 2006, 12:20 AM

QUOTE
I stand by the fact that "cracking" the rabbit races is virtually impossible based on my reasons mentioned above. Using probability to increase your odds of winning is a more practical approach, much like with any other gambling.


Exactly. And you know what, if let's say you did find a series of patterns based on a certain algorhythm, they'd change the variables based on the algo. So in essence, you'd lose more than you win, because as soon as you crack it and announce it, they'll fix it. However - if you discover it, don't announce it ;D

Certain people I know have figured certain get-rich techniques and don't share their tricks, like Newhook, but there's a select few, maybe one day I'll tick them all off and reveal a few tricks (none illegal, just time / patient consuming / knowledge based)

Posted by: stabme Oct 13 2006, 01:10 AM

QUOTE(Sephyrson @ Aug 2 2006, 07:17 PM) [snapback]5850[/snapback]

lol... its not hard to make money off the tracks at all

check this out, get 3 friends

5 rabbits race
you have a 3/5 chance to win
the payout is 4x the original bet
so each time one of you wins, you split the 4x payout 3 ways
you make money
its simple math
yes, Its after work, I'm tired, and not speaking in complete sentances
but trust me, you can easily make 2mil a day, per person, just by doing that while doing hw, writing a term paper, playing xbox, watching tv, whatev...

-seph

this is the most sensible thing. its the only way to beat chance: there will be no pattern, since its random. so you ned to stack chance in your favor.

but anyway.. isnt there a flaw to the random function in programming, how its not TRULY random? isnt it based onf a clock cycle etc? ... although its so insanely had to time that it might as well be random.

Posted by: Ishman Oct 13 2006, 02:40 AM

As far as the random() function goes...

QUOTE

The random() function uses a non-linear additive feedback random number
generator employing a default table of size 31 long integers to return
successive pseudo-random numbers in the range from 0 to (2**31)-1. The
period of this random number generator is very large, approximately
16*((2**31)-1).

The random() and srandom() functions have (almost) the same calling
sequence and initialization properties as the rand(3) and srand(3) func-
tions. The difference is that rand(3) produces a much less random
sequence -- in fact, the low dozen bits generated by rand go through a
cyclic pattern. All the bits generated by random() are usable. For
example, `random()&01' will produce a random binary value.

Like rand(3), random() will by default produce a sequence of numbers that
can be duplicated by calling srandom() with `1' as the seed.

The srandomdev() routine initializes a state array using the random(4)
random number device which returns good random numbers, suitable for
cryptographic use. Note that this particular seeding procedure can gen-
erate states which are impossible to reproduce by calling srandom() with
any value, since the succeeding terms in the state buffer are no longer
derived from the LC algorithm applied to a fixed seed.


It looks like srandomdev() is the only function that actually utilizes the random number generator. rand() is the function that I would never use for anything, ever, but it appears that random() improves on it. tongue.gif

( **sigh** Sadly, when I took my C++ class, my teacher was still showing everyone to use rand()... That guy was, perhaps, one of the reasons I quit pursuing Comp. Sci. I mean, aside from the fact that the degree is worthless...)

I digress. If these functions were being used, I suppose if one knew the seed, it wouldn't be terribly difficult to figure it out...? As usual, the problem remains that we don't have enough info. Probability is your best bet.

Posted by: KaN Oct 16 2006, 01:27 AM

Nerds.




















Haha, sike. PIEMINISTER, I'd be willing to help, as long as it doesn't entail more than 5 minutes of watching pixelized rabbits run.

Posted by: Gokku Oct 16 2006, 04:14 AM

QUOTE(KaN @ Oct 16 2006, 08:27 AM) [snapback]14863[/snapback]

Nerds.

Dumb wink.gif

Posted by: Nagnag Oct 18 2006, 06:44 AM

Oh wow 1-liner responses. Right...

So here's what I suggest we all do. I suggest we hold a huge rabbit races event where 50-100 people just bet and have fun. And then tally up the results to see how much total money was won vs lost, and who bet on who and which won.

If you can organize something like that - that would rock. Because then you'd have a massive amount of people to compare numbers around with.

Posted by: Euphoria Oct 18 2006, 07:27 PM

I'd come smile.gif

Posted by: Ishman Oct 18 2006, 10:03 PM

I'd breathe heavily. smile.gif

Posted by: spinkns Oct 21 2006, 02:54 PM

HEY RANGENS AND RANDOS THE SEED IN YOUR EQUASION IS BASED ON SERVERS SYSTEM CLOCK PROLLY TO >MILISECOND GOOD LUCK

Posted by: Ishman Oct 21 2006, 07:27 PM

-sigh- Do you people actually read the thread?!

Posted by: stabme Oct 29 2006, 02:29 PM

QUOTE(Nagnag @ Oct 18 2006, 07:44 AM) [snapback]14959[/snapback]

Oh wow 1-liner responses. Right...

So here's what I suggest we all do. I suggest we hold a huge rabbit races event where 50-100 people just bet and have fun. And then tally up the results to see how much total money was won vs lost, and who bet on who and which won.

If you can organize something like that - that would rock. Because then you'd have a massive amount of people to compare numbers around with.

even though we've already established it's RANDOM and you can already prove mathematically how much money everyone will lose. rolleyes.gif and despite we've ALREADY ESTABLISHED the most effective way to make money . . . . i can effectively say you only read the last two post and not a single other post on this page. so yes, THANK YOU FOR READING. and then making an idiotic contribution.

Don't bash!

Ally

Posted by: solman Nov 8 2006, 10:56 AM

QUOTE(Ishman @ Oct 10 2006, 01:52 AM) [snapback]14499[/snapback]

To me, it seems like this is what you're doing...

For the sake of illustration, I will use n trials of a coin toss. As may be apparent, H means that the coin landed on Heads and T means that the coin landed on Tails.

H, H, T, H, H, T, H, H, H, T, T, H, H ,H ,T, T, H, H, H, H, T, T, T, H, ..., T, T, T

Observing the first twenty-three and the last three results [trials (n-2), (n-1), and (n)] of n trials, one might look at the results and say, "There's obviously a pattern to the outcome of the coin toss!" While it may appear to be so at face value, that's nowhere near correct. In this example, we can say that after 23 tests, there is certainly a distinctive pattern. However, that pattern is only valid for trials 1 to 23. You cannot prove that this pattern will hold for every test afterward. This remains true for one thousand tests, for one million tests, even for 10^(10^(10^10)) tests. Obviously, the more tests you perform, the more reliable your data will be; but, you would need to perform n tests to show that your pattern is, indeed, valid.

Suffice to say that even after a century of data analysis, it is unlikely that you will have found anything even resembling a pattern. At least, mathematically speaking, the odds are stacked against you.

In other words, unless you want to be playing with rabbit races for the rest of your life, I suggest you stop and find a different approach, such as the suggested probability approach. I'm sure as hell not going to waste my time with the method of exhaustion -- I have goals in life, you see... laugh.gif
---
Edited: Illustration was poorly conceived, text was very hard to follow. Adjusted accordingly. Please bear with me, as my eyes are closing themselves and my A.D.D. is kicking in. Maybe I should sleep. I'll check on this tomorrow. smile.gif



Oh I love the coin toss debate. No pattern eh your right in that aspect but you can predict with over a 90% accuracy on getting this right. Theres 3 major things you have to keep in mind when deciding in a coin toss. 1 is the weight of a coin. Meaning lets just take a quarter for example. The head side of the coin is actually much heavier then the tails side. So its going to constantly land in a truely even flip tails 100% of the time. This is due to the head side being heavier will tend to pull and have a higher gravitation pull on that side of the coin making this face down.

2. The way the coin is tossed. Is this coin flipped or is it spinned? This would have a huge bearring on the outcome. Again due to weight complexities the spinning will give you a greater percentage towards tails. Where as with it being flipped (by flipped i mean truely flipped with many rotations) your going to have a higher increase of it being the same face value as it being started out as. Meaning this.. Place the coin on your thumb as if your going to flip it. Whatever face value its showing either it be heads or tails will most likely be that same result.

3rd is power. A higher power in the spin or the flip will increase or decrease the rate of it being heads or tails. Now this part will have to go into alot more details in explaining however you start to get the idea from these points. If you can add all these concepts and incorporate them, you can have around a 90% sucess rate on picking heads or tails. I believe I had an 87.9% using these methods.

So in this case its not the patterns of the results but rather the results of the start. So theres more then just 1 way to figure out a pattern. Hope that helps a little in figuring out how to crack a few things within nexus.

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Nov 8 2006, 01:22 PM


Also, to add to Solmans post if you set up a machine and make sure there are no variables (even temperature, and air pressure) you can continually get a coin to flip on a certain side 100% of the time)

Posted by: SawSan Nov 9 2006, 10:59 AM

I see people advising to get 3 more friends (total 4) to make a better winning chance....

Why not bring your other chars and bet?

i never done it before, dont like bets anyways.

just a thought.

Posted by: Ishman Nov 9 2006, 02:08 PM

I see your points on the coin issue, but I think you all missed my point. The purpose of the coin toss illustration was to demonstrate that just because there looks to be a pattern doesn't mean there is one, as one miss will break the entire pattern. It was NOT intended to illustrate that a pattern cannot be devised using artificial methods; though, ideally, the objective of artificial apparatus is to eliminate entropy altogether (i.e. try to achieve only one result 100% of the time), so of course you can predict what the outcome will be. wink.gif

Moreover, recall, you don't have those options available to you in the rabbit race. With the rabbit race, assuming it utilizes the pseudo-random number generator as previously mentioned... It's more similar to going to a crowded city street, blindfolding yourself, handing someone a coin and saying "toss it," asking them to tell you what it landed on, and writing down the result. From there, you proceed to spin yourself around one hundred times and down a few pints or something, pick up the coin and walking around until you find a different person to hand the coin to. You tell them, "toss it," asking them to tell you the result, writing down the result. You repeat this process until you get tired of it (or until you vomit on someone else's shoes.) Time passes, you recover yourself, and you decide to use your data from your past trials to predict the outcome for future trials.

I'm arguing that it would be impractical to do such a thing, because for one, time passed, meaning there are different people present. Two, each person will not flip it the same way, even if you run into a person you encountered during the previous trials. Finally, the amount of entropy you put into the system changes as well; for instance, maybe you won't drink so much this time to avoid getting sick. It's just impractical, if not impossible, if I'm looking at everything correctly, and assuming that my hypothesis (utilization of the PRNG) is correct.

This illustration matches with the way the PRNG works, because you don't know the state of the generator (inc. which person you handed it to, how they flip the coin, etc.), and the state changes based on how much entropy is put into it (inc. how many times you spin yourself, how many pints you down, how much time has passed between trials, and how long you walk around until you bump into another person to toss the coin). Furthermore, you can't really know anything about the past or future states of the generator -- being blindfolded and tipsy, it's unlikely that you'll bump into a previously encountered person any time soon (and if you do, you won't know it); and of course, you won't know who you'll end up bumping into in the future.

The only thing on your side is probability -- you will always have a 50% chance of guessing correctly.

(Oh, by the way. Assume that, for the sake of illustration, you won't get arrested, robbed, or beaten to death with a tire iron by doing such a profoundly stupid thing.)

Posted by: solman Nov 11 2006, 12:04 AM

Alright I understand your point in your example with the coin toss.. I really do. My point was there could be other variables that you can encounter that you may of not realized. For example, my ilbon knife secret that I don't know if anybody has figured out yet has multiple variables that people probably don't even realize that are related.

As far as the rabbit races though, I have never participated in this so I don't know how to interpret a pattern because I can't see any variables. I would suggest try around totem times, doing it in multiple states (IE scourage and so forth). Try to see what could possibly influence your pattern you think you have. It won't take long to crack the pattern because nexon never tried very hard to hide such a thing.

Oh and for the record it is rarely timmed by an internal clock but rather the game clock. Meaning your totem times. Which basically means things are a little faster since 1 yuri = 45 days.

Posted by: Ffyll Dec 18 2006, 08:16 AM

QUOTE

aOkay... This might be a little nerdy, but over a vacation two of my friends and I recorded over 4 days of straight rabbit races numbers... No repeats.



If this is the case, then I suspect it's not random. You would expect, after so many races, at least one of them to have the same results. In fact, using the birthday alogrythm, it's almost certain!

If it's based on a list, ie, the list of every possible combinations and every race just moves to the next combo, then someone needs to record the entire cycle of results and then verify it by repeating the cycle. This is quite expensive. But, it many players, over the course of some weeks, submit results, then there should be at least some overlap if it is based on a list.

But really, why would you want to do this? As soon as it's cracked the economy will crash, and it'll be changed smile.gif

Posted by: Leonis Dec 18 2006, 11:51 AM

QUOTE(Ffyll @ Dec 18 2006, 08:16 AM) [snapback]21450[/snapback]

If this is the case, then I suspect it's not random. You would expect, after so many races, at least one of them to have the same results. In fact, using the birthday alogrythm, it's almost certain!

If it's based on a list, ie, the list of every possible combinations and every race just moves to the next combo, then someone needs to record the entire cycle of results and then verify it by repeating the cycle. This is quite expensive. But, it many players, over the course of some weeks, submit results, then there should be at least some overlap if it is based on a list.

But really, why would you want to do this? As soon as it's cracked the economy will crash, and it'll be changed smile.gif

I think by "not repeating" he meant there is no discernible pattern, not that there are never two trials in a row with the same result.

QUOTE
I would suggest try around totem times, doing it in multiple states (IE scourage and so forth).

I doubt that Nexon would have programmed it to take into account all those things when they could just use a random function, considering their well known laziness.

Posted by: SungKen Dec 18 2006, 04:56 PM

Solman... you comment on this 'ilbon secret' if this could help to solve the riddle... why do you not share this with all of us?

Posted by: blragh Dec 20 2006, 11:43 PM

one person winning every rabbit race they bet on ruining the entire monitary community? when there's already people with saken rings and sun type armors running around like its nothing? hardly. more power to you pie man. also I have no useful data to report.

Posted by: KaN Dec 21 2006, 09:21 AM

QUOTE(blragh @ Dec 20 2006, 10:43 PM) [snapback]21715[/snapback]
also I have no useful data to report.

Atta boy.

Posted by: SungKen Dec 21 2006, 02:29 PM

QUOTE(KaN @ Dec 21 2006, 10:21 AM) [snapback]21746[/snapback]

Atta boy.


Kan... you have no useful information in your entire head... so no more talking for you ok?

Anyways... I was playing around and I was practicing the races with scourge on, and I seemed to get more wins... however I only had time to do 6 races before sc and 6 after sc
before:
1 w
2 l
3 l
4 l
5 l
6w

after sc:
1 l
2 l
3 w
4 w
5 w
6 w

Posted by: Leonis Dec 21 2006, 04:14 PM

From a statistic point of view, 6 trials do not really show anything. It would take a lot more to prove any solid difference.

Posted by: Ishman Dec 21 2006, 04:58 PM

Even then, you can still only demonstrate a correlation, or lack thereof, between scourge and win-loss ratio. There isn't enough data to prove that scourge has any real effect.


Posted by: stabme Dec 22 2006, 02:07 AM

scourge...


i hate all of you.


QUOTE
Anyways... I was playing around and I was practicing the races with scourge on, and I seemed to get more wins... however I only had time to do 6 races before sc and 6 after sc
before:
1 w
2 l
3 l
4 l
5 l
6w

after sc:
1 l
2 l
3 w
4 w
5 w
6 w

especially you

Posted by: TaiPatron Dec 22 2006, 07:46 AM

ALright ive been playing rqbbit races forever, even since i was bann the day it came out for betting -9999 repeadedly to make 14mil+ items.

Anyways, that was all dealt with.

So, what Ive learned from rabbit races are thattttt its all pure luck.

With thunder in #1 you cant go wrong

Archon in #4 is 50/50
Running wind in 3 is a gooder.. and i never really see floppy or socks win..
Ohyeah forrest is good in 3 too.

But other then that... its random.

Ive seen a rabbit win, when they glitched off the feild, or wer ein 2nd place. So maybe its already all set in the server. :\

Posted by: Ishman Dec 23 2006, 08:58 AM

Of course it's all done by the server. Entropy is gathered from the hardware. In fact, I discussed this earlier in the thread... http://www.nexusatlas.com/forums/index.php?s=&showtopic=404&view=findpost&p=14530 for more information on the random number generator. I realize the post is specific to a different topic as I was attempting to prove a point; but, the basic workings of the RNG are illustrated nonetheless.

P.S. Luck is a myth.

Posted by: LEET Jan 8 2007, 01:00 AM

The rabbits move a certain ammount of steps per second. YOU WILL NOT CRACK IT.


I've tried.

Posted by: Topher Mar 1 2007, 05:18 AM

I doubt this will ever be figured out, and If it does get figured out kru will quickly change it and you'll be back trying to figure it out, as for "solmans ilbon secret" thats a crock of [content removed].

Posted by: solman Mar 1 2007, 08:44 AM

I have proven my ilbon knife secret works time and time again. I refuse to teach anybody this secret for 1 reason... You all give me no credit for any of my findings to begin with, so this is the only way I can have 1 up on the community in general. Soon as this is released I will be given no credit for discovering this and just be laughed upon.

Far as it being cracked and Kru doing something about it.. Are you serious? Just about anything you find random in any game is not random. Theres always ways to crack it. I gave you ideas to attempt and try to crack codes. This is how I can figure the game could relate to the server personally. Keep in mind when you click to bet, your sending your own personal information into the game. This is what influences the results. This isn't something Kru can program. This is something in general any random generator does. I don't care what kind of machine your talking about. It will pull as much diffrent type of data as possible. Now again I haven't played so I could not test this. I have never even attempted them. Sounds to me if the scourage thing works its a will-grace and ac thing personally. You figure out the formula with it you have it. Again its just per speculation.. Try a few diffrent options. Use valor during this time. Combine spells then play. Maybe when Sc your clicking when its every even number for a win... Maybe its every square root? Who knows..

Posted by: stabme Mar 4 2007, 03:59 PM

guys, solman's right. i just looked at nexon's code...

CODE
if (character.weapon().name().compareTo("Ilbon knife") == 0)
{
     miniGame.game(g).rabbit(r).modifyChance((double).7);
} else {
     miniGame.game(g).rabbit(r).modifyChance((double).2);
}

Posted by: Lucifer Mar 5 2007, 02:35 AM

QUOTE(stabme @ Mar 4 2007, 02:59 PM) [snapback]28005[/snapback]

guys, solman's right. i just looked at nexon's code...
CODE
if (character.weapon().name().compareTo("Ilbon knife") == 0)
{
     miniGame.game(g).rabbit(r).modifyChance((double).7);
} else {
     miniGame.game(g).rabbit(r).modifyChance((double).2);
}



i dont know any programming but i can tell you are making fun of solman and that is funny

Posted by: stabme Mar 5 2007, 02:36 AM

sorry, someone tricked me. i was wondering why their code looked like they used java...
heres the right code

CODE
20667 IF weapen[CHAR][37] == "Ilbon Knife" AND naime[CHAR][2] == "SolMAN" THEN
20668     miniGameData2_CHANCE[6] = 0.7
20669 ELSE
20670     miniGameData2_CHANCE[6] = 0.2
20671 ENDIF

Posted by: Sitira Mar 5 2007, 03:30 AM

"Often the most complex questions have the most simple answers."

Those of you that continue to search for the specific pattern to the races, I'll tell you this. They likely use a shuffle mode style pattern, in other words, it is controlled randomization of a set of variable events, each chosen based upon the previous occasions, resulting in an enormous chain of random patterns which seem unconnected untill studied closely. Each "pattern" if you will, will never be repeated untill all other possible patterns are achieved and then they are repeated in a random fasion, resulting in a completely unpredictable outcome of events, unless you've studied every possible pattern and chain of patterns the races have to offer, which would require at least a solid year of constantly observing, and collecting data to determine what all possible variables there are and which pattern chain it is using at the given time. Hence, it's not worth it in the long run as you will lose more real money then the in game money is worth.

Posted by: Gokku Mar 5 2007, 08:06 AM

QUOTE(stabme @ Mar 5 2007, 08:36 AM) [snapback]28063[/snapback]

CODE
... AND naime[CHAR][2] == ...


Did you mean they also make typos even in their code!!

Posted by: Coolboyman Mar 5 2007, 05:25 PM

My personal opinion is each step a rabbit takes is random. There is no 'set winner' when the round starts. Each step a rabbit takes is probably a randomized number, and whichever rabbit steps on the finish line tile first, is the winner.

I think the only way to be able to make sure you win all the time, would be to 'magically' go inside the racing track along with three other people, and block the four rabbits you don't want to win so they never reach the finish line. Although, you'd probably get banned for that anyways.

Posted by: stabme Mar 5 2007, 07:45 PM

QUOTE(Gokku @ Mar 5 2007, 08:06 AM) [snapback]28071[/snapback]

Did you mean they also make typos even in their code!!

it's nexon. and korean.

sitira> that's too complicated to code. this isn't an algorithm. its just a randomization function that comes with almost all code languages, based on the microseconds of the clockspeed or some bullcrap.

Posted by: solman Mar 7 2007, 05:10 PM

Bottom line is, nothing computer generated is ever random. You can and will figure it out if you spend the time on it.

Posted by: stabme Mar 7 2007, 05:41 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator

the seed is usually related to the clock cycle. not the packets. i dont think eldridge told his programming team to pull some weapon out of their asses to improve the player's chances at winning. it's completely controlled by modules on the server, unaffected by any outside packets.

Posted by: Leonis Mar 19 2007, 06:29 AM

QUOTE(solman @ Mar 7 2007, 05:10 PM) [snapback]28377[/snapback]

Bottom line is, nothing computer generated is ever random. You can and will figure it out if you spend the time on it.

Yes, but the time you spend on it could be near infinite.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem randomly hitting a typewriter will produce a work of Shakespeare's if you give them enough time. But that doesn't mean anyone is going to find out how to crack the rabbit races in this lifetime. Excluding any hacks that may arise.

Stabme, that is exactly what I was thinking! I have no idea why people would think that nexon would put some different modifying factor into the races. How would increase the player-base? It would just be a waste of effort and lord knows nexon hates wasting their effort...

Solman if you are not willing to explain this mystical ilbon theory then stop mentioning it. You can not use something as proof if no one knows what the heck you are talking about.

Posted by: solman Mar 19 2007, 11:28 PM

Leonis before I go on another rant just thrashing and bashing you... I would recommend you just shut up right now. You guys never gave me credit for any discovery in nexus, thus I refuse to release the secret EVER. This is one thing you will never get out of my as long as im alive. Somebody else will steal credit for the discovery at some point which is fine. But you guys need to discover this one on your own. Due to how complex the system really is, it will take you guys ages of trial and error to figure it out.

Now anything computer generated will not take a life time to figure out. I don't care what system your talking about. Hell lets try a keno game. Take me a few months of non stop data and I gaurentee with the right people, you can crack a keno game to the point where your odds of winning are like 1 in 8. This is the big jackpot not just a win in general.

This is probably one of the hardest random computer generated events to figure out in this day in age to be honest. Slot machines are pretty simple to crack, bar machines even easier. Ive personally been banned from playing machines at 14 specific bars due to the consistant winning. Which at this point I just hit it if I need extra cash once in awhile. I try to keep it an extremely low profile. Thats myself personally though.

Now this is a helpfull hint for stabme. Its not so much that nexus uses outside sources for packet information by choice. Its controlled by the user triggering the switch and the information packets regaurding that user. This is the only hint im giving for the rabbit races because im almost 95% sure the same system applys to the rabbit races as it does an ilbon knife. Its not something thats controlled again by the random generator meaning its how it was programmed, however it does influence it. Theres like 6 other factors into this and you should have it down to a science.

Posted by: DEREKSMART Mar 20 2007, 09:49 PM

QUOTE(solman @ Mar 20 2007, 12:28 AM) [snapback]29432[/snapback]

Now anything computer generated will not take a life time to figure out. I don't care what system your talking about.


Take this simple function on pairs of natural numbers to natural numbers:
CODE

          { n+1                 if m = 0
A(m,n) =  { A(m-1,1)            if m > 0 and n = 0
          { A(m-1,A(m,n-1))     if m > 0 and n > 0

and go figure out what A(100^100,101^101) is equal to.

Posted by: NIKE Mar 22 2007, 01:52 PM

AND THATS THE BOTTOM LINE.. CAUSE DEREKSMART SAID SO.

Posted by: PIEMINISTER Mar 22 2007, 02:04 PM

QUOTE
Take this simple function on pairs of natural numbers to natural numbers:
CODE
{ n+1 if m = 0
A(m,n) = { A(m-1,1) if m > 0 and n = 0
{ A(m-1,A(m,n-1)) if m > 0 and n > 0

and go figure out what A(100^100,101^101) is equal to.


42.



Lol, in all actuallity though there is nothing complex about recording data. There's a difference between knowing what every outcome will be and spotting specific patterns and exploiting those patterns. I have pages of excell documents recording patterns certainly more than a years work and every 3-4of weeks I'm able to spot a series of 3-5 recognizable races where I'm able to make a few million. ( I use Karma newbs to place bets to maximize winning potential)

It isn't very difficult it is time consuming and quite boring, but it does have it's payoffs.

Posted by: DEREKSMART Mar 23 2007, 01:08 AM

Actually I was a little unfair as 100^100 and 101^101 are already ridiculously huge, so here, go figure out what A(50,50) is. If you do within your lifetime I'll give you a shiny gold medal.

As for Mr. Minister of Pies, what you said sounds far more like mere coincidence than a true exploitation of whatever algorithm they're using and I strongly question the veracity of your statements.

QUOTE(NIKE)
AND THATS THE BOTTOM LINE.. CAUSE DEREKSMART SAID SO.


if you're a soda machine, LOOK OUT BECAUSE I'M ABOUT TO UNLOAD

Posted by: stabme Mar 25 2007, 08:59 PM

QUOTE(DEREKSMART @ Mar 23 2007, 02:08 AM) [snapback]29798[/snapback]

Actually I was a little unfair as 100^100 and 101^101 are already ridiculously huge, so here, go figure out what A(50,50) is. If you do within your lifetime I'll give you a shiny gold medal.


I actually tried this...
CODE
#include<iostream>
using namespace::std;

int A(int m, int n)
{
    if (m == 0) return n+1;
    if (m > 0 && n ==0) return A(m-1,1);
    if (m > 0 && n > 0) return A(m-1, A(m,n-1));
}

int main()
{
    cout << A(50,50);
}


few minutes past....still no answer....bleh ;p


edit: ehhhh screw it; so far i have 3,7,61 and see no pattern and it segfaults at a(4,4). sad.gif

Posted by: DEREKSMART Mar 25 2007, 11:07 PM

QUOTE(stabme @ Mar 25 2007, 09:59 PM) [snapback]29924[/snapback]

few minutes past....still no answer....bleh ;p
edit: ehhhh screw it; so far i have 3,7,61 and see no pattern and it segfaults at a(4,4). sad.gif


segfaults because you ate up the entire stack with the recursion ( a(4,4) is something like 2^(2^(2^65536))-3 )

Posted by: stabme Mar 26 2007, 01:45 AM

yeaahhh i know.

i lookd at a(1,1)=3, a(2,2)=7, a(3,3)=61 , and realized they were all prime numbers and found (with index starting at 1) p(2)=3, p(4)=7, p(18)=61, and tried finding some obscure formula that could fill it all... like a=2(2^(a-1)+1) . . . . didnt really work out much, esp. after i looked and saw that a(0,0)=1......and that basically through my prime number idea out the window...meh. sleep.gif;

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