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> Cracking The Rabbit Races, Uncovering the algorythm
PIEMINISTER
post Aug 12 2006, 02:29 AM
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funny you mention roulette, I remember reading of a european composer turned mathemitician exploiting the game roulette by collecting data samples on specific wheels to determine the wheel's defect and increase his chances of winning immensley, him and his family ended up making millions before they were barred from all major casinos worldwide.

There is a "defect" in these races and I will be the to find it, hopefully kru isn't as corrupt as the gaming community.
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Euphoria
post Aug 12 2006, 07:32 PM
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I think if you do eventually "crack the rabbit races" kru will just change the algorythm and maybe even ban you for the ammount of gold that you could pump into economy in matter of hours. look at all the people who were banned for the bears liver bug. or farther back the people who were banned for the water jewel bug when SOE first came out.

But if you decide to press the matter I wish all of the luck to you

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PIEMINISTER
post Aug 12 2006, 07:41 PM
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The thing is all of those things were BUGS, cracking an algorythm isn't a bug.
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Leonis
post Aug 12 2006, 08:54 PM
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QUOTE(PIEMINISTER @ Aug 12 2006, 08:41 PM) [snapback]7582[/snapback]

The thing is all of those things were BUGS, cracking an algorythm isn't a bug.

Why would KRU care? They aren't going to watch and give you a pat on the back and say "Good job! You beat the system!" as the economy exploads from inflation and we are put through another Reckoning. You seem to think that archons will only enforce the laws they put up on the boards. They have shown in the past that they have no problems with making up new laws on the spot to keep players in line (see: alcohol issue).
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PikuDamaru
post Aug 15 2006, 04:21 PM
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As much as this is a good idea and under normal circumstances, you shouldn't get in trouble for "figuring out anything", this isn't normal circumstances. Nexon NEVER was that simple. People got banned for bugs THEY put in. More then ususal, people got in trouble for a problem Nexon themselves caused. I'll give KRU credit saying he isn't half as bad as Nexon was, but that's not to say he won't ban you.

Good luck anyway.


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RpgWizard
post Aug 23 2006, 06:20 AM
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QUOTE(solman @ Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM) [snapback]6664[/snapback]

Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.



Did you know there is a .0000000000000001% chance that you will find my wave function (IE, myself) on Jupiter? Quantum Mechanics FTW.

(EVERYTHING is random, maybe I should change this to everything is probability)

Einstein: God does not "play dice" with the universe... WROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG

Heisenberg Uncertainty principle, as you know more about the velocity you know less about the position. You can never know the particles EXACT position since you would then know an EXACT velocity, but that is exactly contrary to the fact that as you know more about the position, you know less about the velocity, and vice versa. Everything is probability, as these are the basic building blocks of the universe.

Edit: Obviously does not apply to BASIC mathematics, where 2x = 4 => x = 2 since x cannot equal anything else...
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Caspar
post Aug 25 2006, 07:01 AM
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wheres the races located, i wanna go lose money


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Xyiphis
post Sep 17 2006, 02:53 PM
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Im a noob so im asking a question

say you bring 3 people for the rab races (4 with you)
you each bet 99k
only the wins and gets 40% chance of 1 winning 396k and everyone gets the same amount. 50% chance noone wins and you all waist 99k
10% of something else

so how do you make money there?


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PIEMINISTER
post Sep 17 2006, 09:15 PM
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Your math is off.

If you went with 3 other people to the Rabbit races, and you each spent the max of 99,999 betting on different four rabbits you'd have a 80% chance of breaking even, and a 20% chance of losing all of your money...


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Xyiphis
post Sep 18 2006, 06:31 PM
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either way, whats the point?


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PIEMINISTER
post Sep 19 2006, 08:57 AM
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That particular method there is no point, however there are other "smart" methods that yield great benefits. I personally have made over 6 million in Rabbit Races now.
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Xyiphis
post Sep 19 2006, 05:51 PM
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like?


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PIEMINISTER
post Sep 19 2006, 06:10 PM
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this thread will tell you how, maybe take the time to read it.
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Gokku
post Sep 20 2006, 04:58 AM
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Interesting subject! I love probability. Let's see:

Mathematically, (if no "work arounds" are used), on average it is impossibale to make money out of the current rabbit race, whatever the number of players you bring. Even more, the more players you involve the more money you loose on average:

Let suppose you bring p players and each player bets an amount m on a different rabbit, then the average money you will make per race would be:

(money won) x (probability of winning) - (money lost) x (probability to loose)
= ( (4-p) x m x (p/5) ) - (p x m x (5-p)/5)
= -(p/5) m

In other words, on average you should loose (p/5)xm per race. Which also means that the more players you involve the more you loose!

Evenmore, if you change to a different scheme and make all players bet on the same rabbit you will end up exactly with the same probability (p/5)xm loss.

I haven't looked at all possible ways to make bets. But so far it seems that there is no way to make money one average withthe current rules.


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Zilwan
post Oct 6 2006, 10:33 AM
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okay okay okay... let me get this straight...

If you have 3 people betting.... say on

1) 2) 3) and 100k each, one should win 3/5? Meaning if you win 3 times... thats 1,200,000 coins? total. However, if one spends 100k on each rabbit, 3 per round... thats 1,500,000 coins every 5 rounds. Don't you lose money?


If we start with 1,000,000 bank roll

Round one we win. We wager 300k, and win 400k. (100k on each rabbit)

1,100,000 coins (Not bad)

Round two we win. We wager 300k more... and win 400k, (betting 100k on each rabbit)

1,200,000 coins... we're on a roll

Round Three we lose, We wager 300k, and lost it all... (100k on each rabbit)

900,000 We won 2/3 and lost money?

Round 4 we win... betting 300k, and we won 400k.. Waahoo

We are back at a mil after winning 3/4....

Round 5 we lose... 300k.... we lost

After 5 rounds we are at 700k.... Where is the profit in this probability?





In total you spend 1,500,000 coins.

but, you win 3 times... so thats 100k X 4 and thats 400k per turn times 3 is 1,200,000 coins? Where is the profit? No one calculated the losses?
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Nagnag
post Oct 8 2006, 02:12 PM
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Ok, there are 5 rabbits. You can bet up to 99k for each rabbit. So for sake of arguement, we will bet 10k per rabbit in this example.

r1 - 10k
r2 - 10k
r3 - 10k
r4 - n/a
r5 - n/a

Lets say you start out with 100k

As you can see, no one bets on r4 & r5. Now, let's say r1 wins. That's 40k minus your 30k bet, you won 10k so it ends up being 2x your original bet.
Which now you have 110k.

Let's say, though, that you bet the same bet, 10k on r1-3, then r4 wins, then you lost 30k, which leaves you with 80k. But now lets say you made the same bet again, 10k on r1-3 and r5 wins, you're down to 50k.

You can always THINK you beat the odds, but really you're just uping the risk. And when you up the risk you up the potential payout, but also the potential blow-out. In other words, no matter if you bet with 3 chars or 1, your potential is the same because the amount you pay with each evens it out in the end.

For example:
[10][10][10] <-10k on rabbits 1,2, & 3
[10] <-10k on rabbit 1

If you do the 10k on rabbit 1 three times, you've got just as much chance as winning off of the three bets of 3x[10] (30k total). In fact, you'll have mroe fun, spend more time, and MORE RISK by betting MORE MONEY on MORE CHARACTERS on MORE RABBITS. But you would win more IF you bet in more than just 10k each, for instance...

If you bet ..
10k on rabbit 1
50k on rabbit 2
10k on rabbit 3
50k on rabbit 4
10k on rabbit 5

You have spent 130k and if rabbit 2 or 4 hits, you win 200k, a 70k profit.
But if rabbit 1, 3, or 5 hit, you'll make 40k and lose 90k on the bet.

If you do the math, let's say you lost 90k three times, that's 270k, and then the 4th time you win, you win 200k, but you're still 70k down.

There IS a way to make constant profitability out of this, and that way is to will it so. Sit down, imagine yourself winning, bet 99k on TWO rabbits, and you'll win. I promise.


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PIEMINISTER
post Oct 8 2006, 03:47 PM
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YO,

COULD ALL OF YOU GRADE 10 MATH STUDENTS STHU, AND LEARN TO READ? THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS THREAD WAS NOT A MATTER OF PROBABILITY BUT DATA ANALYSIS.

I HAVE MADE MMMMMMMMMMMIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLIIIIIIIIIIOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSS IN ACTUAL DATA ANALYSIS THUS FAR IN A LITTLE OVER A YEAR. ITS A DIFFICULT PROCESS AND IT IS NOT YET PERFECT THIS IS WHY I WAS SEEKING THE HELP OF ALL OF YOU FORUMERS TO MAKE THIS PROCESS MORE EFFICENT, AND FASTER. IT TAKES ME A WHILE TO RACK UP MONEY, BUT WITH A PERFECT SYSTEM WE COULD THEN CALL THE RABBIT RACES A FREE MONEY DISPENSER.
PEACE
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Nagnag
post Oct 9 2006, 06:52 AM
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No, you are wrong. Let's say, for sake of argument, that it was a simple data analysis thing. Lets say it took us a month to finally crack this code and find this ultimate pattern. All they have to do is create another random generated pattern and bam, all our work is down the drain.

Do you REALLY think kru doesn't read the forums? Puhleese. It's better to base your winnings off probability than it is data.


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PIEMINISTER
post Oct 9 2006, 06:30 PM
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I've been working on it for a little over a year now, and through this data I am able to locate specific patterns which yield maximum results, the only problem is my data is incomplete.

Also I've had this idea of data analysis since well into Nexon's era, and let me tell you there is one specific pattern of 6 that is still found in the Rabbit races that I always capitilize on. The only problem is I see it once every couple of weeks at best, there are other smaller recognizable patterns but my goal is to be able to walk into a rabbit race, watch two or three, and instantly know the patten of every single race afterward.
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Nagnag
post Oct 10 2006, 02:30 AM
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Then let's put it this way, if you already know the "pattern" and there are "few other instances" then go in, follow it UNTIL your pattern comes up, and then bam, figure out the new one. Simple.


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