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> Cracking The Rabbit Races, Uncovering the algorythm
PIEMINISTER
post Aug 2 2006, 05:46 PM
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I have been really bored with nexus as of late and want to do something completely challenging, and the only thing I can think of is being able to uncover the algorythm used (through data analysis) to be able to repeatedly pick winners in the rabbit races. After hours upon hours of research I am certain a randomizer isn't used and instead a semi-complex log is used.

If you want to potentially make loads of nexus money, I ask that you help me with my research in posting your finds. When recording data longer cycles (6+ races) are more helpful.

What you need to list....

Make sure you only gamble/research at the Masan race tracks we need to limit our variables just incase different equations are used at different locations.

Rabbits who raced (include, name, color, and place finished)

Good luck, and thanks. I'll post my current findings shortly, it will take a while to convert them all from an excell document to forum a forum friendly post.



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Sephyrson
post Aug 2 2006, 06:17 PM
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lol... its not hard to make money off the tracks at all

check this out, get 3 friends

5 rabbits race
you have a 3/5 chance to win
the payout is 4x the original bet
so each time one of you wins, you split the 4x payout 3 ways
you make money
its simple math
yes, Its after work, I'm tired, and not speaking in complete sentances
but trust me, you can easily make 2mil a day, per person, just by doing that while doing hw, writing a term paper, playing xbox, watching tv, whatev...

-seph


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Lord Kyoto
post Aug 2 2006, 06:18 PM
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Intresting, il post my results.
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LEET
post Aug 2 2006, 08:56 PM
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actully I did the same thing and studied atleast 200 races i found it......................





RANDOM
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hiro
post Aug 2 2006, 10:01 PM
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Okay... This might be a little nerdy, but over a vacation two of my friends and I recorded over 4 days of straight rabbit races numbers... No repeats.
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Leonis
post Aug 3 2006, 12:30 AM
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Uhh why wouldn't it be random? Using a random number generated by the server would be the easiest way for Nexon to have programmed the race tracks wouldn't it? It's obviously not completely random (as complete randomness is like impossible to obtain through programming) but why would you waste your time calculating the flaw? Even if you do figure it out I doubt it would go unnoticed by the archons/KRU. You could just as easily go wooling instead. =P I dunno.. it just doesn't sound like a very honest way of getting money.
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PIEMINISTER
post Aug 3 2006, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE
Uhh why wouldn't it be random? Using a random number generated by the server would be the easiest way for Nexon to have programmed the race tracks wouldn't it? It's obviously not completely random (as complete randomness is like impossible to obtain through programming)


randomizers are based off of equations, and as you pointed out are not completely random.With a wide enough spread of data which could be 1,000+ samples an equation can easily be obtained.

Leet, Hiro do you have your vast ammount of samples recorded?

I'm fairly adept at math myself however I have been talking to a math professor at my university about the complexities of algorythmic logs used in randmoizers and he is providing me with 3 papers written by his friend that will provide a simple method for me to convert this data into its original equation.
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hiro
post Aug 3 2006, 05:33 PM
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No
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LEET
post Aug 3 2006, 05:38 PM
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I formatted my computer

but I should have it on a disk somewhere


I recorded the Number, color, and the name of the rabbit in each race and only the ones who win.
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Ishman
post Aug 4 2006, 12:21 AM
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The code probably just utilizes the Unix pseudo-random number generator. (I'm almost positive they use Unix-based servers). Such a thing isn't impossible to crack programmatically, but it's difficult. I'd say your odds of cracking it just by watching it is next to impossible if the above is true; the /dev/random driver is reliable enough for anything from randomizing your music playlist to generating 1024-bit RSA key pairs, if that gives you any idea. tongue.gif

But hey, not to discourage you from finding a pattern. ^^

An analysis of the Linux Random Number Generator
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PoeticTruth
post Aug 4 2006, 01:37 PM
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Reminds me of the Numb3rs TV show where people figured out the algorhythm of a casino card shuffler so they could find out what card it would deal next.

Crazy.

I myself, hate math, and calculus, and all that fun stuff, so I will not be able to help you.

And I don't gamble that much =p
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solman
post Aug 5 2006, 10:21 AM
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Wish I could help in this. However if its anything like finding out the randomizer for casting spells with weapons, it should be semi easy to figure out. I mean if you really think about it, anything even concidered random in nexus is easy to crack and figure out.


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XtremeX
post Aug 7 2006, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(PoeticTruth @ Aug 4 2006, 11:37 AM) [snapback]6174[/snapback]

Reminds me of the Numb3rs TV show where people figured out the algorhythm of a casino card shuffler so they could find out what card it would deal next.


yeah I saw some guy figure out a lottery one once and he was stupid and immediatly won the lottery and ended up getting caught.


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DEREKSMART
post Aug 7 2006, 11:30 PM
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You will never get it. It's completely intractable.

There's no telling how many other random things are used by the same seed number that is used to randomize the races, thus you'd have to know exactly how many calls to the algorithm were made between races so you could track the seed (assuming you knew the algo used and the initial seed.)

Furthermore, if you watch the races you can see the rabbits changing speed constantly, which leads to the more probabilistically correct assumption that the winner is not randomly chosen before hand, but instead random numbers are generated for every rabbit every X milliseconds to modulate the speed at which they run.
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solman
post Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM
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Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.


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Ishman
post Aug 8 2006, 12:34 AM
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QUOTE(solman @ Aug 8 2006, 12:24 AM) [snapback]6664[/snapback]

Fact of the matter is nothing in the world is completely random. Its all in a matter of how fast you can compile information and how well you can process it.

I mean even shooting craps isn't completely random. If you can compile the strength of the dice vs the rotation of the wrist as well as the hight and distance of the throw, add in the variables of hitting the walls or chips/money on the table.. In theory you can know what it will hit every single time. Can you actually monitor all this and see all the variables as well as process this before the dice stop rolling? Id guess hell no. However if it could be done, then you would know what the dice will land on making it not random. Again its all about information and how well its gathered and processed. Nothing in the world is random.


I have to argue with that. Everything in the world is probability. You can only "solve random," so to speak, with an infinite amount of time... Remember, in physics, as time goes forward, entropy increases.

In your illustration, you can't ignore that there are subtle variables no matter what you try to keep constant, because you're not in control of the properties of the universe. laugh.gif

In reality, you can get a good idea of what it might hit every time if you know some stuff about probability in mathematics. For instance, playing a good game of blackjack only requires a subtle and insanely quick ability to count cards and calculate the probability based on the cards in your hand. If you have an educated guess of whether to hit, stand, or fold, you're more likely to make money than you are if you cannot account for these variables. But you'll never be right ALL of the time.

I argue that betting on the rabbit race is a matter of calculating probability, not solving an equation; much like stated by Sephyrson.
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PikuDamaru
post Aug 8 2006, 04:50 PM
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Sounds to me if we can at least get CLOSE, the chances of us making money off of this is still pretty good.


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Toshimaru
post Aug 11 2006, 12:17 PM
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I got bored, and thought..
Why not just listen to people that've said it, and get 3 friends..

I pulled out a peice of paper

Each friend bids 100k, thats 4/5 chance to win, wich is very likely, 3 lose, 1 wins, the one that one gives them their money back, and 25% of the profit, so they all made 25k, 25k every 10 minutes, for 1 hour, 250k an hour, Do it for maybe, 8 hours straight, 2mill in an 8 hour day, for EACH person.

I'd say at 4/5, just get 3 friends..


<edit>And is it just me, or is it usually 2,3, and 4 that win the races in all the rabbit race tracks?

<2nd edit> I meant get 3 more friends, not just 3 friends, I just woke up >.>


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PIEMINISTER
post Aug 11 2006, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE
Each friend bids 100k, thats 4/5 chance to win, wich is very likely, 3 lose, 1 wins, the one that one gives them their money back, and 25% of the profit, so they all made 25k, 25k every 10 minutes, for 1 hour, 250k an hour, Do it for maybe, 8 hours straight, 2mill in an 8 hour day, for EACH person.

I'd say at 4/5, just get 3 friends..


Your math is totally off. First of all the maximum bet you can make is 99,999 but lets say it is 100k, if you win you only win 4 times the ammount you bet. Meaning you have 4/5 chance to BREAK EVEN... Rofl... not to mention you get the figure of 25k every 10 minutes and somehow the number of 250k for an hour...

QUOTE
And is it just me, or is it usually 2,3, and 4 that win the races in all the rabbit race tracks?


In my latest logs of around 120 to 130 races (most of them are divided up every 6 to 9 races thats an hour to an hour and a half...)

1. 27, 2. 22, 3. 30, 4. 25, 5. 23

The higher the data sample the closer the final results would be, assuming of course that it's just based off of Rabbit placement.
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Nagnag
post Aug 12 2006, 02:20 AM
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One time I sat back and watched the races and sought what I thought was a pattern, 2,2,4,4,1,3,5,3,3,5,5,2,4,1 something like that, now it LOOKS like a pattern, possibly - but wasn't. Now - this is why gambling is so addicting and so chaotic at the same time. It is based on random equations. This is true, nothing can be 'completely random" but COMPLETE RANDOMNESS would take an infinite amount of space for numbers. And almost-complete randomness (what a computer can do) is still too much for us to solve.

Now, if each "randomness" in nexus is based off of the same RANDOM equation, then yes, if recorded from the FIRST randomness to the 10 millionth randomness, then you can look for the pattern of randomness that the rabbit races occurs in and look in the numbers you have recorded from something else, and find this. Thus, a pattern. However, you can not if it is completely random (meaning random numbers multiplying random numbers dividing random numbers, removing decimals, whatever)

Now, with all that mumbo jumbo aside, think about this. One time I was almost banished from merchant gambling because I kept ambushing the caster (the merchant) as soon as they'd say "flips coin" basically having MY spell be the last casted on them, and then they cast THEIR spell on me, hmmm... coincidence? I won 25/25 one time. Thus I was once rich, but it's all coincidence. Sit at a roulette table and try to guess the next color, you may be right for a while, but probability and product of elimination doesnt' work for this.



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