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> What Stagnation Looks Like, Data from November '16
halombobtk
post Nov 30 2016, 07:06 AM
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Note: Dataset begins and ends on a Tuesday for easy comparison (11/1/16 - 11/29/16)

From Wony on 8/15/2016:

QUOTE
Creating a new server running in parallel next to the current one could be an interesting idea, but we do not want to split the growing community at this point. Yes, Nexus is growing. And fear not. Your game play will not abruptly end.


If Wony's "Yes, Nexus is growing" statement was true in August (paint me a skeptic), it certainly wasn't in November. As the months roll on I'll feel better about my sample size, but in the early going it's concerning that cool weather has arrived in the Northern Hemisphere and we're not seeing cyclical growth yet. I'm guessing we'll still see a slight upswing in December/January, but November shows pretty clear stagnation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the population has changed much since the start of summer. Even with the release of Oh San, it's doubtful there will ever be a major uptick in users on the current server. The only thing that would be compelling enough for former players like me to resub and actually play (not afk), would be a new, retro server. Wony is delusional if he thinks minor improvements are going to make people excited about playing the game again. Even Oh San is a minor improvement in the grand scheme of things since it's so incredibly overdue. It's hard for people to get excited about a new feature when they already associate negative feelings toward it.

Speaking of which, please put your feelings about a second server aside for a second and listen to my experience. It's the familiar story of a former player who logged thousands of hours in the early '00s and came back to give it another go, which means I fall directly in this game's primary target market for growth. Just like many others, I returned to NexusTK on my own after navigating to NexusAtlas and getting the itch. I was greeted by the barren wasteland that was Tangun, but it was new content, so I didn't mind it initially. Once I got out, I ran around looking for hunts and was immediately frustrated by the lack of players to hunt with, but still joined a clan and had some fun for a couple months. The glaring problem was the game felt hollow due to the lack of players anywhere near my stats. I thought about restoring my Sam sans, but even that seemed pointless as I watched the same person sage for a hunt three times in a row without anyone else saging in between.

The only remedy for this hollow feeling and the quick departure of returning players is to get a substantial number of new players to all sub at the same time. I don't understand why this is hard for many of you to comprehend. A new, retro server will do exactly this. I promise you there isn't a single feature Wony could release on the existing server (including Oh San) that would get a significant number of players to resub simultaneously and be excited about playing for >3 months. A "ladder reset" in the form of a new server is a tried-and-true way of getting people hyped about an old game. You can whine all you want, but there's just no arguing against this. It has been proven countless times on private servers for this game and others, many of which are often inferior products. It is known.

There were 9 resets in November. These resets reveal that between 65% and 75% of players are afk at ~2am PST. This supports my test in August where I whispered people at 12:30pm PST on a Saturday to see how many were afk. I only received responses from 25% of players. Taking dual-accounting into consideration, I'd wager that the number of distinct active users is easily <33% of logged users at any given time. This means that, on average, there are about 66 humans playing NexusTK based on average logged-in users per day hovering around 200.

A new server, timed with a minimal marketing push, wouldn't need to attract many people to literally double the number of distinct active users. I'm not sure many current players realize just how far the population has fallen. A new, retro server is the only option for growing this game meaningfully. None of this should be groundbreaking. You can choose to live in a fairy tale where someday Wony is going to make some monumental change and magically triple the population overnight, or you can acknowledge the painfully obvious: My unpopular suggestion is our only way to significantly grow the game.

tl;dr If you care about growing NexusTK, you'll read this post biggrin.gif
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Krmit
post Nov 30 2016, 11:22 AM
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a new "Retro" server is really not a solid answer. For comparison, i borrowed an old school nintendo from my buddy, because i was like "OHHH SNAP, GONNA PLAY ALL THESE OLD GAMES I USED TO PLAY"

Fact of the matter is 20 minutes into the games, the graphics were so depressing the nostalgia quickly wore off.

Also growing may mean new active registered accounts, that could be people who tried to get the coin boxes and regged more accounts for bank space, or who knows...
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halombobtk
post Nov 30 2016, 06:40 PM
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QUOTE (Krmit @ Nov 30 2016, 12:22 PM) *
Fact of the matter is 20 minutes into the games, the graphics were so depressing the nostalgia quickly wore off.

I'm not sure if you made the graphics comment because you think retro server = retro graphics, or just current graphics being depressing. For clarity, I'm not pushing for retro graphics since there are far more important issues imo. I would just want whichever is easiest to code/maintain (guessing new graphics to keep in line with current server). Either way, your analogy is super weak. MMOs are addictive. Duck Hunt is not.

QUOTE
Also growing may mean new active registered accounts

Please don't be pedantic. DarkMaverick already brings enough of that to the table. We both know what growing the game means. NexusTK is unplayable because no one plays. People logging in for 10 minutes every day to click on an NPC doesn't make the game more playable. I know you're probably just trying to translate Wony's statement, but it distracts from the point of this post. Only distinct ACTIVE (see: not afk) users matter to those playing the game.
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Doctor
post Nov 30 2016, 07:57 PM
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People don't play the game because the game sucks. Hunting isn't fun or challenging, items are static and boring, and to pk you need to grind stats hunting for years, and we're not even getting into the fact that the paths and subpaths have remained completely unbalanced for almost 2 decades now.

Unless a reset magically turns this into a completely different game, you're going to lose more players who don't want to play the same crap game over again than you'll gain people.


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halombobtk
post Nov 30 2016, 11:11 PM
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QUOTE (Doctor @ Nov 30 2016, 07:57 PM) *
People don't play the game because the game sucks. Hunting isn't fun or challenging, items are static and boring, and to pk you need to grind stats hunting for years, and we're not even getting into the fact that the paths and subpaths have remained completely unbalanced for almost 2 decades now.

Unless a reset magically turns this into a completely different game, you're going to lose more players who don't want to play the same crap game over again than you'll gain people.


You're in a bubble. I don't think you realize how many people used to play this game, or don't get how few of them you actually knew. How big was your circle of friends when you played? 50 at most? >2k people have played this game at one point or another. Fun is subjective, and your opinion is not representative of the entire 2k+ former player pool. A new server only needs about 60 players to be profitable for Kru and fun for the non-crotchety folks who want to sink another 1k hours into the game as adults with disposable income. I don't think it's outlandish at all to assume 60 players would get hyped for a new server with extremely minimal marketing.

I'm down to put some money on it too. I can find an escrow account that generates a return for us, where both parties get their money back (+/- market returns obv) if a new server doesn't happen in two years. If a new server happens, the bet is on the number of active players after one year. Wouldn't be hard to define the terms. Any takers? I'd be willing to do something in the $1k-4k range, but might entertain smaller amounts. I really feel I'd be printing money with that bet.

Try to think objectively, people! Set your emotions aside. They really inhibit rational thought.
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Conro
post Dec 1 2016, 12:48 AM
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This only thing that would bring me back to TK would be a complete overhaul of the game.

KRU doesn't understand...

- Item balance and keeping new/old items relevant so people WANT to pursue them
- Path balance
- Solo/Multiplayer balance
- What a time investment quest is
- PVP Balance
- How to make unique PVE game modes that encourage the player to try them ([Content removed] was able to create instanced content, raid bosses, so it's entirely possible on the platform)
- How to add features that don't punish the player
- How to monitor the game without lame in game punishments


The game just isn't fun compared to plenty of other games on the market. It was fun for what it was when MMOs were new, but they've done nothing to keep up with the market.


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Ace
post Dec 1 2016, 01:20 AM
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I'm going to save myself the typing and just write the tldr:

I don't think a retro server is a good idea. I wouldn't play it aside from a brief log in to check it out.


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Brant
post Dec 1 2016, 09:55 AM
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I don't think a new server is wise either. The grinding in this game would make it so that after a week, the somewhat large group of players who hunt 16 hours a day would again be so far ahead of anyone else, it would be a matter of months before the game was back in the same spot it was before.

Rather than offering a way to start over and do the same thing, KRU needs to fix what's wrong with the game first. If KRU addressed the issues that others have mentioned above, then maybe I would consider starting over. Until that happens, I'm not going to waste any of my time re-rolling on a game with a [Content removed] foundation.

Truthfully, I don't understand OP's fascination with starting over, it doesn't make any sense and I haven't seen a single person who's even agreed with OP. If you want a chance at enjoying the game the way it exists now, you'd just be better off buying an account for $100 and getting a 5 year head start. Ain't nobody got that much time to waste.
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Krmit
post Dec 1 2016, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE (halombobtk @ Nov 30 2016, 06:40 PM) *
I'm not sure if you made the graphics comment because you think retro server = retro graphics, or just current graphics being depressing. For clarity, I'm not pushing for retro graphics since there are far more important issues imo. I would just want whichever is easiest to code/maintain (guessing new graphics to keep in line with current server). Either way, your analogy is super weak. MMOs are addictive. Duck Hunt is not.


Please don't be pedantic. DarkMaverick already brings enough of that to the table. We both know what growing the game means. NexusTK is unplayable because no one plays. People logging in for 10 minutes every day to click on an NPC doesn't make the game more playable. I know you're probably just trying to translate Wony's statement, but it distracts from the point of this post. Only distinct ACTIVE (see: not afk) users matter to those playing the game.


IDK whats worse, you using stupid words to try to look smart like pedantic or comparing me to DM
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Krmit
post Dec 1 2016, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE (Conro @ Dec 1 2016, 12:48 AM) *
This only thing that would bring me back to TK would be a complete overhaul of the game.

KRU doesn't understand...

- Item balance and keeping new/old items relevant so people WANT to pursue them
- Path balance
- Solo/Multiplayer balance
- What a time investment quest is
- PVP Balance
- How to make unique PVE game modes that encourage the player to try them ([Content removed] was able to create instanced content, raid bosses, so it's entirely possible on the platform)
- How to add features that don't punish the player
- How to monitor the game without lame in game punishments


The game just isn't fun compared to plenty of other games on the market. It was fun for what it was when MMOs were new, but they've done nothing to keep up with the market.


Right, and to be honest, even though the economy is not great, it is FAR more stable than many other games ive played.

On a side note, The fact they're introducing so much cash into the game at such a fast rate through these minor quests and new games is actually making money just stupid overall. They really need to find ways to sink money to keep prices stable. Money these days is completely useless whats the point of it, besides repairs? Its essentially being printed and just handed out by the 10's of thousands by just clicking an NPC.
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Mazel
post Dec 1 2016, 06:11 PM
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Looks like a graph of what your mom did to me last night?

JK


Well not JK, but I think any effort spent on crying about the game is wasted. My opinion is that "it is what it is" and if you want to stop people from growing up and leaving the game you should probably go paraplegicize them, break them up with their significant others, etc.


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Doctor
post Dec 1 2016, 06:52 PM
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What I don't understand is what we get out of a retro server. What does that bring to the table? Nostalgia? Great... let's all meet up and play Rodger Rabbit and Mavis Beacon Type Tester too.


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Hijack
post Dec 1 2016, 10:04 PM
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Halombobtk, can you please point me to some of your supporters? Thanks

I'm really interested in this idea and want to start a group task force

Let's call it the Nexus Is Gradually Going Away Soon task force
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halombobtk
post Dec 1 2016, 10:17 PM
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QUOTE (Brant @ Dec 1 2016, 10:55 AM) *
Truthfully, I don't understand OP's fascination with starting over, it doesn't make any sense and I haven't seen a single person who's even agreed with OP.




What's there to understand? I enjoyed the game thoroughly and never experienced any of the drama Conro did. I would easily pour >1k hours and $50/month into a new pre-Vortex, pre-Tangun server. There are loads of people that left Nexus, not because they were butthurt like you guys, but because they went off to college and life got in the way. There are plenty of those people who don't want to come back to the current server, but would come back to a new one. I'm not alone. If you follow the NexusTK subreddit, you'll be able to see a constant trickle of former players returning to the game and almost all of them are rolling new characters. It's so obvious those people would play on a new server.

The thing none of you properly understand is just how much of a bubble you live in. You take your own thoughts and feelings about the game and project them onto >2k nameless, faceless former players and millions of people who are a Steam advertisement away from discovering NexusTK. If you seriously believe that there aren't ~66 people who think differently than you about the game, you're probably a bit delusional. People get addicted to Candy Crush ffs.

Step outside your bubble and try to think rationally. The success of crappy private servers is all you need to point to. People love blank slates in grindy games. Kinda telling that no one took me up on my wager btw. So much confidence displayed in these replies, so little to back it up.
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Krmit
post Dec 2 2016, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 1 2016, 10:17 PM) *
What's there to understand? I enjoyed the game thoroughly and never experienced any of the drama Conro did. I would easily pour >1k hours and $50/month into a new pre-Vortex, pre-Tangun server. There are loads of people that left Nexus, not because they were butthurt like you guys, but because they went off to college and life got in the way. There are plenty of those people who don't want to come back to the current server, but would come back to a new one. I'm not alone. If you follow the NexusTK subreddit, you'll be able to see a constant trickle of former players returning to the game and almost all of them are rolling new characters. It's so obvious those people would play on a new server.

The thing none of you properly understand is just how much of a bubble you live in. You take your own thoughts and feelings about the game and project them onto >2k nameless, faceless former players and millions of people who are a Steam advertisement away from discovering NexusTK. If you seriously believe that there aren't ~66 people who think differently than you about the game, you're probably a bit delusional. People get addicted to Candy Crush ffs.

Step outside your bubble and try to think rationally. The success of crappy private servers is all you need to point to. People love blank slates in grindy games. Kinda telling that no one took me up on my wager btw. So much confidence displayed in these replies, so little to back it up.


So you're basing your argument off of what "sexman510" has to say LOL to you sir.
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halombobtk
post Dec 2 2016, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE (Krmit @ Dec 2 2016, 11:05 AM) *
So you're basing your argument off of what "sexman510" has to say LOL to you sir.

You called pedantic a "stupid word" ffs.
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BeReal
post Dec 3 2016, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE (Conro @ Dec 1 2016, 01:48 AM) *
This only thing that would bring me back to TK would be a complete overhaul of the game.

KRU doesn't understand...

- Item balance and keeping new/old items relevant so people WANT to pursue them
- Path balance
- Solo/Multiplayer balance
- What a time investment quest is
- PVP Balance
- How to make unique PVE game modes that encourage the player to try them ([Content removed] was able to create instanced content, raid bosses, so it's entirely possible on the platform)
- How to add features that don't punish the player
- How to monitor the game without lame in game punishments


The game just isn't fun compared to plenty of other games on the market. It was fun for what it was when MMOs were new, but they've done nothing to keep up with the market.


So what you mean to say is you're never coming back.
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Gabe
post Dec 3 2016, 12:54 PM
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It isn't so much that people are trapped in a bubble, they just see the reality of the game, and they want it to change. They don't want Kru to invest time and resources into another server when they should be fixing the current state of the game.

Sure the old times were great. In the days when the community was large and full of active players, there was so much to do and enjoy. Those days are gone though. Accept it. It's human nature to want to return to better times and days. That isn't reality though.
Every month you post about a new server, or argue for one, and beat that dead horse into the dust. Kru doesn't want that. Wony doesn't want that. It isn't going happen. No matter how many people you have on your side, that's just the way things are.

The community in these forums feel a certain way. You know this by now. Instead of spending your time trying to change everyone's mind here, why not just stick to reddit since you have so much support there? I'll tell you right now, you aren't going to change anyone's mind here; they want this game to either die already or get fixed properly. That's it.


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halombobtk
post Dec 3 2016, 01:51 PM
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QUOTE (BeReal @ Dec 3 2016, 08:30 AM) *
So what you mean to say is you're never coming back.


Conro's posts are always going to be derailing because he has far higher standards for this game than the average former player. He knows its failings intricately and is an intelligent/analytical dude. The 2k+ target market of former players and their fam/friends, on average, are not as smart as Conro or anyone else in this thread except Krmit (lol). At the end of one year, only ~66 of them still need to be actively playing on the new server to make it a worthwhile endeavor. That would double the current number of active users and be a nice boost in revenue for Kru with microscopic variable costs. The license, AWS, building, devs, etc. are already paid for. I doubt they'd even need to hire someone new to build/maintain it, as they could simply dial back all the useless updates we've seen so far on the existing server. After launch, maintenance would be minimal. With retro pacing and maps, there is more than enough content to churn through for 1-3k hours with everyone starting new. Grinding to 99 would take ages compared to how it is now, and people would be making multiple characters to max Glory/Legends/Ancients. Mounts, crafting bags, and misc. kruna for every character would be more than enough to justify the project, even if it died after a couple years.

@Doctor - why do you discount the market for nostalgia so heavily? Just because you don't see value in it, doesn't mean others don't. I sound like a broken record, but not everyone left NexusTK because they fell out of love with it. Plenty of players, like me, went off to college and have been itching to get back into it now that the chaos of their 20s has started to settle down. NexusTK is the perfect casual MMO for people >25 since the gameplay is so simplistic you can just put on an audiobook, podcast, learn a foreign language, chat with friends/fam, etc. while you grind. Just look at the NTK subreddit. Every returning player is rolling a new character, and those people would so blatantly prefer to be on equal footing with others, progressing together. Getting leeched is super boring when that's the only real way to progress. It bastardizes the carefully planned dopamine schedule of the initial designers. Also important to note that all these returning players are doing so with zero effort by Kru. It would not be difficult to get a bunch of people to sub at the same time for a new, retro server with ~30 minutes of social media outreach (or the Steam push Wony has mentioned). It would also not be difficult to get a reasonable % of those players to stay for >12 months. MMOs are addicting by nature. I mean, people still play and donate to [Content removed] and it has serious issues. That's all the evidence you need to know that a new server would be viable.
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halombobtk
post Dec 3 2016, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE (Gabe @ Dec 3 2016, 12:54 PM) *
It isn't so much that people are trapped in a bubble, they just see the reality of the game, and they want it to change. They don't want Kru to invest time and resources into another server when they should be fixing the current state of the game.

Sure the old times were great. In the days when the community was large and full of active players, there was so much to do and enjoy. Those days are gone though. Accept it. It's human nature to want to return to better times and days. That isn't reality though.
Every month you post about a new server, or argue for one, and beat that dead horse into the dust. Kru doesn't want that. Wony doesn't want that. It isn't going happen. No matter how many people you have on your side, that's just the way things are.

The community in these forums feel a certain way. You know this by now. Instead of spending your time trying to change everyone's mind here, why not just stick to reddit since you have so much support there? I'll tell you right now, you aren't going to change anyone's mind here; they want this game to either die already or get fixed properly. That's it.


Solid post, but I have to correct you on these rather important statements you made:

"Kru doesn't want that. Wony doesn't want that."

First off, Kru and Wony have one priority: USD. Second, Wony himself said that my idea was interesting, just not something he wanted to pursue at this time (August '16). If they can pull off a second, retro server on the cheap, they will do it eventually because it's an obvious goldmine for kruna sales. People refuse to consider this because they're so fixated on their own wishes, as you mentioned in the first couple sentences of your post. I know I'm biased having studied finance in college, but I promise you small business owners don't think like NexusTK players. When its cash cow gets sick, Kru will do something about it. I, personally, don't want that something to be Wony stepping away again and neglecting the game til it dies of natural causes, so I'm going to continue to lobby everywhere I can for a new server. That's far more preferable to me - a last-ditch effort by Wony to get people excited about NexusTK again, rather than further neglect.

You can pretend people like me don't exist all you want, but here I am, in the flesh, happily typing away. I don't have to convince any of you. Any discussion is positive, since there are always lurkers on forums/reddit/fbook/community/dreams who are going to agree with me. And like I've said, Wony really doesn't need many of them for a new server to be profitable.
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