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> What Stagnation Looks Like, Data from November '16
halombobtk
post Nov 30 2016, 07:06 AM
Post #1


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Note: Dataset begins and ends on a Tuesday for easy comparison (11/1/16 - 11/29/16)

From Wony on 8/15/2016:

QUOTE
Creating a new server running in parallel next to the current one could be an interesting idea, but we do not want to split the growing community at this point. Yes, Nexus is growing. And fear not. Your game play will not abruptly end.


If Wony's "Yes, Nexus is growing" statement was true in August (paint me a skeptic), it certainly wasn't in November. As the months roll on I'll feel better about my sample size, but in the early going it's concerning that cool weather has arrived in the Northern Hemisphere and we're not seeing cyclical growth yet. I'm guessing we'll still see a slight upswing in December/January, but November shows pretty clear stagnation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the population has changed much since the start of summer. Even with the release of Oh San, it's doubtful there will ever be a major uptick in users on the current server. The only thing that would be compelling enough for former players like me to resub and actually play (not afk), would be a new, retro server. Wony is delusional if he thinks minor improvements are going to make people excited about playing the game again. Even Oh San is a minor improvement in the grand scheme of things since it's so incredibly overdue. It's hard for people to get excited about a new feature when they already associate negative feelings toward it.

Speaking of which, please put your feelings about a second server aside for a second and listen to my experience. It's the familiar story of a former player who logged thousands of hours in the early '00s and came back to give it another go, which means I fall directly in this game's primary target market for growth. Just like many others, I returned to NexusTK on my own after navigating to NexusAtlas and getting the itch. I was greeted by the barren wasteland that was Tangun, but it was new content, so I didn't mind it initially. Once I got out, I ran around looking for hunts and was immediately frustrated by the lack of players to hunt with, but still joined a clan and had some fun for a couple months. The glaring problem was the game felt hollow due to the lack of players anywhere near my stats. I thought about restoring my Sam sans, but even that seemed pointless as I watched the same person sage for a hunt three times in a row without anyone else saging in between.

The only remedy for this hollow feeling and the quick departure of returning players is to get a substantial number of new players to all sub at the same time. I don't understand why this is hard for many of you to comprehend. A new, retro server will do exactly this. I promise you there isn't a single feature Wony could release on the existing server (including Oh San) that would get a significant number of players to resub simultaneously and be excited about playing for >3 months. A "ladder reset" in the form of a new server is a tried-and-true way of getting people hyped about an old game. You can whine all you want, but there's just no arguing against this. It has been proven countless times on private servers for this game and others, many of which are often inferior products. It is known.

There were 9 resets in November. These resets reveal that between 65% and 75% of players are afk at ~2am PST. This supports my test in August where I whispered people at 12:30pm PST on a Saturday to see how many were afk. I only received responses from 25% of players. Taking dual-accounting into consideration, I'd wager that the number of distinct active users is easily <33% of logged users at any given time. This means that, on average, there are about 66 humans playing NexusTK based on average logged-in users per day hovering around 200.

A new server, timed with a minimal marketing push, wouldn't need to attract many people to literally double the number of distinct active users. I'm not sure many current players realize just how far the population has fallen. A new, retro server is the only option for growing this game meaningfully. None of this should be groundbreaking. You can choose to live in a fairy tale where someday Wony is going to make some monumental change and magically triple the population overnight, or you can acknowledge the painfully obvious: My unpopular suggestion is our only way to significantly grow the game.

tl;dr If you care about growing NexusTK, you'll read this post biggrin.gif
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Posts in this topic
- halombobtk   What Stagnation Looks Like   Nov 30 2016, 07:06 AM
- - Krmit   a new "Retro" server is really not a sol...   Nov 30 2016, 11:22 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Krmit @ Nov 30 2016, 12:22 PM) Fac...   Nov 30 2016, 06:40 PM
|- - Krmit   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Nov 30 2016, 06:40 PM...   Dec 1 2016, 04:58 PM
- - Doctor   People don't play the game because the game su...   Nov 30 2016, 07:57 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Doctor @ Nov 30 2016, 07:57 PM) Pe...   Nov 30 2016, 11:11 PM
- - Conro   This only thing that would bring me back to TK wou...   Dec 1 2016, 12:48 AM
|- - Krmit   QUOTE (Conro @ Dec 1 2016, 12:48 AM) This...   Dec 1 2016, 05:04 PM
|- - BeReal   QUOTE (Conro @ Dec 1 2016, 01:48 AM) This...   Dec 3 2016, 08:30 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (BeReal @ Dec 3 2016, 08:30 AM) So ...   Dec 3 2016, 01:51 PM
- - Ace   I'm going to save myself the typing and just w...   Dec 1 2016, 01:20 AM
- - Brant   I don't think a new server is wise either. The...   Dec 1 2016, 09:55 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Brant @ Dec 1 2016, 10:55 AM) Trut...   Dec 1 2016, 10:17 PM
|- - Krmit   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 1 2016, 10:17 PM)...   Dec 2 2016, 10:05 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Krmit @ Dec 2 2016, 11:05 AM) So y...   Dec 2 2016, 10:39 PM
- - Mazel   Looks like a graph of what your mom did to me last...   Dec 1 2016, 06:11 PM
- - Doctor   What I don't understand is what we get out of ...   Dec 1 2016, 06:52 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 1 2016, 10:04 PM
- - Gabe   It isn't so much that people are trapped in a ...   Dec 3 2016, 12:54 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Gabe @ Dec 3 2016, 12:54 PM) It is...   Dec 3 2016, 02:16 PM
|- - darkmaverick   I do not disagree with your conclusion that Nexus ...   Dec 4 2016, 11:57 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (darkmaverick @ Dec 4 2016, 11:57 P...   Dec 5 2016, 01:32 AM
- - Conro   Pretty much, yeah, I won't be back. It was a ...   Dec 3 2016, 07:28 PM
- - darkmaverick   Was there supposed to be a link in your post? I...   Dec 3 2016, 10:18 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (darkmaverick @ Dec 3 2016, 10:18 P...   Dec 3 2016, 10:55 PM
- - darkmaverick   Ah for some reason images didnt load for me the fi...   Dec 4 2016, 11:43 PM
- - Doctor   Dude. I don't understand what what you think w...   Dec 5 2016, 03:31 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Doctor @ Dec 5 2016, 04:31 AM) The...   Dec 5 2016, 10:06 AM
|- - halombobtk   To emphasize how weak the replies were: Out of 8 ...   Dec 5 2016, 10:39 AM
|- - Doctor   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 5 2016, 08:06 AM)...   Dec 5 2016, 03:16 PM
||- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Doctor @ Dec 5 2016, 04:16 PM) 1. ...   Dec 5 2016, 11:48 PM
|- - Ace   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 5 2016, 08:06 AM)...   Dec 5 2016, 10:55 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Ace @ Dec 5 2016, 11:55 PM) This m...   Dec 6 2016, 12:01 AM
- - Krmit   To be honest i only played nexus for as long as we...   Dec 5 2016, 02:54 PM
- - Doctor   You think that making a retro server would take LE...   Dec 6 2016, 03:39 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Doctor @ Dec 6 2016, 03:39 AM) You...   Dec 6 2016, 09:59 AM
|- - Doctor   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 6 2016, 07:59 AM)...   Dec 6 2016, 05:26 PM
||- - Xing-Yu Seong   QUOTE (Doctor @ Dec 6 2016, 05:26 PM) No ...   Dec 6 2016, 05:53 PM
||- - halombobtk   QUOTE That would have incredibly resource intensiv...   Dec 6 2016, 10:21 PM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 6 2016, 09:59 AM)...   Dec 8 2016, 09:17 PM
|- - halombobtk   Thanks for the posts, fellas. @Brant Lol, not sur...   Dec 8 2016, 11:46 PM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 8 2016, 11:46 PM)...   Dec 9 2016, 07:30 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (darkmaverick @ Dec 9 2016, 08:30 P...   Dec 9 2016, 10:01 PM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 9 2016, 10:01 PM)...   Dec 10 2016, 03:17 PM
|- - halombobtk   DM getting rekt in 3...2...1... QUOTE (darkmaveric...   Dec 11 2016, 12:46 AM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 11 2016, 12:46 AM...   Dec 11 2016, 10:24 PM
|- - halombobtk   @Doctor - First, thanks for revealing that you don...   Dec 12 2016, 09:36 AM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 12 2016, 09:36 AM...   Dec 12 2016, 02:17 PM
- - KoLD   Odd feeling when I agree with Doctor. Seriously,...   Dec 6 2016, 04:49 AM
- - Brant   RE: What Stagnation Looks Like   Dec 6 2016, 12:03 PM
- - Songa   Pretty sure I've said this before but I rememb...   Dec 6 2016, 12:36 PM
|- - Xing-Yu Seong   QUOTE (Songa @ Dec 6 2016, 12:36 PM) Pret...   Dec 6 2016, 04:58 PM
|- - Songa   QUOTE (Xing-Yu Seong @ Dec 6 2016, 04...   Dec 8 2016, 01:38 PM
- - Xyphier   Sorry, but as much as you would like a retro-serve...   Dec 6 2016, 05:59 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 7 2016, 09:38 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (Hijack @ Dec 7 2016, 09:38 PM) I d...   Dec 7 2016, 09:51 PM
|- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 7 2016, 10:19 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE so many posts exclusively written to belittl...   Dec 8 2016, 09:11 AM
- - Brant   It's happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?...   Dec 8 2016, 10:09 AM
- - Doctor   Let me make it super simple, and also state that H...   Dec 9 2016, 05:15 AM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 9 2016, 08:12 AM
|- - OwnageII   QUOTE (Hijack @ Dec 9 2016, 09:12 AM) tbh...   Dec 9 2016, 10:29 AM
- - Doctor   Right but remember this guy wants a retro server. ...   Dec 9 2016, 01:52 PM
- - Doctor   People aren't restoring their old characters b...   Dec 10 2016, 06:09 PM
- - Doctor   So all but one or two of those people couldn't...   Dec 11 2016, 06:23 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 11 2016, 09:06 PM
|- - OwnageII   You guys should really stop feeding the troll at t...   Dec 12 2016, 10:40 AM
|- - WereWulf   QUOTE (OwnageII @ Dec 12 2016, 10:40 AM) ...   Dec 12 2016, 03:22 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (WereWulf @ Dec 12 2016, 03:22 PM) ...   Dec 12 2016, 07:52 PM
|- - OwnageII   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 12 2016, 08:52 PM...   Dec 12 2016, 09:13 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (OwnageII @ Dec 12 2016, 09:13 PM) ...   Dec 12 2016, 11:41 PM
|- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 12 2016, 11:41 PM...   Dec 13 2016, 01:58 AM
||- - halombobtk   QUOTE (darkmaverick @ Dec 13 2016, 01:58 ...   Dec 13 2016, 10:00 AM
||- - darkmaverick   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 13 2016, 10:00 AM...   Dec 13 2016, 03:20 PM
||- - halombobtk   QUOTE (OwnageII @ Dec 13 2016, 12:42 PM) ...   Dec 13 2016, 11:13 PM
|- - OwnageII   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 13 2016, 12:41 AM...   Dec 13 2016, 12:42 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 12 2016, 03:12 PM
- - Doctor   Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder characteri...   Dec 12 2016, 11:37 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 13 2016, 02:55 PM
- - darkmaverick   "Your point is moot" is a common express...   Dec 14 2016, 12:03 AM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE (darkmaverick @ Dec 14 2016, 12:03 ...   Dec 15 2016, 01:55 AM
|- - OwnageII   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 15 2016, 02:55 AM...   Dec 15 2016, 09:42 AM
|- - WereWulf   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 15 2016, 01:55 AM...   Dec 15 2016, 02:53 PM
- - Gerdi   nexus   Dec 14 2016, 04:17 PM
- - Doctor   RE: What Stagnation Looks Like   Dec 15 2016, 03:01 AM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 15 2016, 08:28 AM
- - Songa   Anyway... How exactly would a retro server work? ...   Dec 15 2016, 01:02 PM
|- - Xing-Yu Seong   QUOTE (Songa @ Dec 15 2016, 12:02 PM) A...   Dec 15 2016, 02:17 PM
|- - Songa   QUOTE (Xing-Yu Seong @ Dec 15 2016, 02...   Dec 16 2016, 01:52 PM
|- - Pebbles   QUOTE (Songa @ Dec 16 2016, 01:52 PM) Ins...   Dec 17 2016, 12:35 PM
- - SilentS   What Stagnation Looks Like............. This thre...   Dec 15 2016, 06:13 PM
- - Mazel   QUOTE (halome @ Jan 4 2009, 9:40 PM) Maze...   Dec 15 2016, 09:18 PM
|- - halombobtk   QUOTE Halombobtk throughout this entire debate DM ...   Dec 15 2016, 10:35 PM
|- - Doctor   QUOTE (halombobtk @ Dec 15 2016, 07:35 PM...   Dec 15 2016, 11:26 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 16 2016, 08:14 AM
- - Alston   Holy hell, what did I miss? Edit: Never-BLEEP-ing...   Dec 20 2016, 04:10 AM
|- - Krmit   QUOTE (Alston @ Dec 20 2016, 04:10 AM) Ho...   Dec 30 2016, 02:08 PM
- - Hijack   this thread is cancer   Dec 30 2016, 04:16 PM
- - Nacostradamuss   I'm so glad we came together to put the slam o...   Jan 2 2017, 02:09 PM
- - Krmit   LOL!!! /\ /\ /\   Jan 3 2017, 02:41 PM
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